Mithrandir Metrics
Player Durham Bulls Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Durham Bulls

Steven Matz

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 35

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Durham Bulls Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024125.08127044.1331.44
2025523.05532276.2591.10
2026446.281510053.0411.40
12 Seasons64664.3026118221057.19811.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace6.28
ERA rolling p505.20
Observed weight51%
ERA
4.08 4.61 5.20 5.79 6.33
FIP
4.13 4.44 4.77 5.11 5.41
K%
15.3% 16.7% 18.1% 19.6% 20.9%
BB%
5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA6.28
8
BB%8.1%
60 -28 vs proj
K%18.1%
20
xwOBA allowed0.366
8 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.6%
5 -43 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
64
Whiff%19.1%
18
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Slider Stuff+103
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matz, Steven · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.366 2026-07-06: 0.3662026-07-07: 0.3662026-07-08: 0.3662026-07-09: 0.3662026-07-10: 0.3662026-07-11: 0.3662026-07-12: 0.3662026-07-13: 0.3662026-07-14: 0.3662026-07-15: 0.3662026-07-16: 0.3662026-07-17: 0.366 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matz, Steven · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.3%Changeup: 29.4%Curveball: 11.2%Slider: 11.0% SI48% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 48%CH 29%CU 11%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 48% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 29% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.9 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.4 mphCU78 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.1% 387 103 qualified
CH 29.8% 235 104 qualified
SL 10.9% 86 103 limited sample
CB 10.2% 80 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2015-06-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.67
K% Δ+0.009

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.373
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.366

Matz’s wOBA-against sits at 0.373, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.366 — a gap of 0.007, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 58 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-05-27Sinker played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.3% K | 4.61 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BAL1 ER / 5 K4.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ MIN1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ STL4 ER / 2 K5.0 IP