Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Matz, Steven

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.3% K%
Range
14.8% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace6.28
ERA rolling p505.20
Observed weight51%
ERA
4.08 4.61 5.20 5.79 6.33
FIP
4.13 4.44 4.77 5.11 5.41
K%
15.3% 16.7% 18.1% 19.6% 20.9%
BB%
5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA6.28
8
BB%8.1%
60 -28 vs proj
K%18.1%
19
xwOBA allowed0.366
8 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.6%
5 -43 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
64
Whiff%19.1%
18
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Slider Stuff+103
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matz, Steven · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.366 2026-07-08: 0.3662026-07-09: 0.3662026-07-10: 0.3662026-07-11: 0.3662026-07-12: 0.3662026-07-13: 0.3662026-07-14: 0.3662026-07-15: 0.3662026-07-16: 0.3662026-07-17: 0.3662026-07-18: 0.3662026-07-19: 0.366 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matz, Steven · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.3%Changeup: 29.4%Curveball: 11.2%Slider: 11.0% SI48% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 48%CH 29%CU 11%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 48% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 29% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.9 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.4 mphCU78 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.1% 387 103 qualified
CH 29.8% 235 104 qualified
SL 10.9% 86 103 limited sample
CB 10.2% 80 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.276 vs 0.301 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 58%, Curveball 21%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.67
K% Δ+0.008
Sample57.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.7----
Batters Faced293----
K%17.3%14.8% to 24.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.0%3.8% to 8.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%17.3%14.8% to 21.7%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.420.85 to 2.08+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3310.285 to 0.356+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.2% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.613.00 to 6.18+/- 1.59
FIP4.303.34 to 5.14+/- 0.90
WHIP1.3261.094 to 1.583+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1080 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%16.7%
BB%4.4%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

3501 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%17.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.3%