Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Pierce Johnson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 202 lb · Age 35

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024663.67580256.1671.30
2025333.05650159.0591.20
2026214.08320128.2261.26
9 Seasons23253.82362217344.14051.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal3 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.46 3.18 3.97 4.76 5.48
FIP
3.74 4.10 4.50 4.90 5.26
K%
18.4% 20.6% 23.1% 25.6% 27.8%
BB%
7.3% 8.6% 10.0% 11.5% 12.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
45
ERA4.23
43
BB%10.6%
28
K%19.7%
31 -31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.377
6 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed16.7%
1 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
65
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
22
Whiff%21.2%
35 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Fastball Stuff+98
20
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Pierce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.377 2026-07-08: 0.3872026-07-09: 0.3802026-07-10: 0.3802026-07-11: 0.3802026-07-12: 0.3802026-07-13: 0.3802026-07-14: 0.3772026-07-15: 0.3772026-07-16: 0.3772026-07-17: 0.3772026-07-18: 0.3772026-07-19: 0.377 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 61%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Pierce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 61.3%4-Seam Fastball: 37.5%Cutter: 1.1% CU61% · 86 mphprimary pitch CU 61%FF 38%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Curveball: 61% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.1 mphCU86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.6 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 65.2% 255 105 qualified
FB 34.8% 136 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 2"
Weight202 lb
Debut2017-05-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ-0.047

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.391
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.377

Johnson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.391, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.377 — a gap of 0.014, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 30 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.4% K | 3.99 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 @ TB0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs LAA0 ER / 3 K1.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ MIA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ MIA0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP