Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Johnson, Pierce

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
18.4% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace3.27
ERA rolling p503.66
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.10 2.84 3.66 4.47 5.21
FIP
3.30 3.67 4.08 4.49 4.87
K%
18.4% 20.8% 23.4% 26.0% 28.4%
BB%
6.8% 8.1% 9.6% 11.1% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
38
Barrel allowed17.8%
1 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
64
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
39
K%19.8%
30 -31 vs proj
Whiff%21.4%
36 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.381
5 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Pierce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3972026-05-19: 0.3972026-05-21: 0.3922026-05-23: 0.3922026-05-24: 0.3852026-05-25: 0.3852026-05-26: 0.3852026-05-28: 0.3812026-05-29: 0.3812026-05-30: 0.3812026-05-31: 0.3812026-06-01: 0.381 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Pierce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 64.6%4-Seam Fastball: 34.4%Cutter: 1.0% MIX CU 65%FF 34%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot CU: HB -0.0, IVB 3.5CUFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.8FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 66.4% 241 105 qualified
FB 33.6% 122 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.310 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 72%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 5%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ-0.046
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.6----
Batters Faced169----
K%24.4%18.4% to 32.2%+/- 6.9%
BB%9.6%6.4% to 14.0%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%24.0%19.7% to 30.4%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.300.36 to 2.26+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3210.252 to 0.393+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.5% to 12.8%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.022.00 to 6.09+/- 2.04
FIP4.062.55 to 4.61+/- 1.03
WHIP1.2711.013 to 1.758+/- 0.373
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

616 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%22.6%
BB%11.7%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

814 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel8.5%