Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Caleb Thielbar

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 39

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024245.32590347.1531.56
2025342.64670158.0560.88
2026224.23320227.2351.30
10 Seasons28183.3344607405.24381.15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p503.86
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.37 3.08 3.86 4.64 5.35
FIP
3.46 3.76 4.09 4.42 4.72
K%
20.4% 22.8% 25.5% 28.2% 30.6%
BB%
5.8% 7.1% 8.4% 9.8% 11.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
66
ERA4.23
43
BB%9.5%
38 -21 vs proj
K%27.8%
83 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.329
34 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.0%
4 -40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%24.7%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+103
55
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thielbar, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-07: 0.2992026-07-08: 0.2992026-07-09: 0.2992026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.3302026-07-18: 0.329 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thielbar, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Curveball: 23.9%Slider: 22.8%Sweeper: 12.7%Split-Finger: 0.4% FF40% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CU 24%SL 23%ST 13%FS 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 76.3 mphCU76 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.2 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.0% 126 106 limited sample
SL 32.1% 88 103 limited sample
CB 21.9% 60 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age39
Height6' 0"
Weight205 lb
Debut2013-05-20
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.50
K% Δ+0.034
Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-03-08Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.3% K | 3.73 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ PHI0 ER / 2 K0.2 IP
2026-04-11 vs PIT0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ TB0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ CLE0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs LAA0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP