Thielbar, Caleb
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.67 |
| ERA current pace | 3.09 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.55 |
| Observed weight | 21% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 52.8% | 113 | 109 | limited sample |
| SL | 25.7% | 55 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 21.5% | 46 | 100 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 38.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 158 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.3% | 17.2% to 31.8% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 5.0% to 12.2% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 18.5% to 28.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.08 | 0.48 to 1.94 | +/- 0.73 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.292 | 0.241 to 0.339 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 4.3% to 11.7% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.73 | 2.21 to 6.23 | +/- 2.01 |
| FIP | 3.68 | 2.82 to 4.52 | +/- 0.85 |
| WHIP | 1.212 | 0.922 to 1.510 | +/- 0.294 |
508 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 25.3% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |
769 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |