Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Luke Weaver

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 180 lb · Age 32

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024732.89620484.01030.93
2025443.62640864.2721.02
2026212.03380140.0430.83
11 Seasons40504.6030810613763.07891.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
76
Arsenal4 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace1.85
ERA rolling p502.96
Observed weight41%
ERA
1.44 2.16 2.96 3.76 4.48
FIP
2.52 2.98 3.49 4.00 4.46
K%
22.2% 24.5% 27.2% 29.8% 32.2%
BB%
5.6% 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
96
ERA1.85
96
BB%8.5%
54
K%27.9%
84 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.264
92 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
36
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%27.8%
82
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+112
97
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Cutter Stuff+96
9
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weaver, Luke · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.264 2026-07-07: 0.2542026-07-08: 0.2602026-07-09: 0.2602026-07-10: 0.2602026-07-11: 0.2602026-07-12: 0.2602026-07-13: 0.2602026-07-14: 0.2572026-07-15: 0.2572026-07-16: 0.2572026-07-17: 0.2572026-07-18: 0.264 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weaver, Luke · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.9%Changeup: 34.3%Cutter: 15.6%Slider: 0.2% FF50% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 34%FC 16%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mphCutter: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mphSlider: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.8% 220 112 qualified
CH 35.3% 153 104 limited sample
FC 13.9% 60 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 2"
Weight180 lb
Debut2016-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.04
K% Δ+0.031

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.253
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.264

Weaver’s wOBA-against sits at 0.253, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.264 — a gap of 0.011, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.8% K | 3.89 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 vs ATH4 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 vs AZ2 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-07 vs AZ0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ SF0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ STL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP