Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Weaver, Luke

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 34.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
76
Arsenal4 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace1.85
ERA rolling p502.96
Observed weight41%
ERA
1.43 2.15 2.96 3.77 4.49
FIP
2.52 2.98 3.49 4.01 4.47
K%
22.2% 24.5% 27.2% 29.8% 32.2%
BB%
5.6% 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
97
ERA1.85
96
BB%8.5%
54
K%27.9%
84 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.264
92 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
36
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%27.8%
83
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Fastball Stuff+112
97
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Cutter Stuff+96
9
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weaver, Luke · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.264 2026-07-08: 0.2602026-07-09: 0.2602026-07-10: 0.2602026-07-11: 0.2602026-07-12: 0.2602026-07-13: 0.2602026-07-14: 0.2572026-07-15: 0.2572026-07-16: 0.2572026-07-17: 0.2572026-07-18: 0.2642026-07-19: 0.264 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weaver, Luke · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.9%Changeup: 34.3%Cutter: 15.6%Slider: 0.2% FF50% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 34%FC 16%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mphCutter: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mphSlider: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.8% 220 112 qualified
CH 35.3% 153 104 limited sample
FC 13.9% 60 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Changeup 30%, Cutter 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.04
K% Δ+0.031
Sample42.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings44.5----
Batters Faced186----
K%24.8%19.2% to 34.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 11.9%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%26.1%21.3% to 31.7%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.360.65 to 2.41+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.2990.258 to 0.356+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.892.36 to 6.58+/- 2.11
FIP4.032.76 to 5.45+/- 1.34
WHIP1.1930.953 to 1.564+/- 0.305
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1618 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%24.6%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1699 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%24.7%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.3%