Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Changeup 30%, Cutter 9%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Weaver, Luke
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.73 |
| ERA current pace | 3.04 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.51 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
1.90
2.66
3.51
4.35
5.11
FIP
2.70
3.18
3.72
4.26
4.74
K%
20.3%
22.9%
25.9%
28.8%
31.4%
BB%
5.7%
6.9%
8.3%
9.6%
10.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
35
-26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
63
+19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
61
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
89
K%24.1%
61
Whiff%22.8%
48
-23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
77
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 51.1% | 182 | 112 | limited sample |
| CH | 35.1% | 125 | 104 | limited sample |
| FC | 13.8% | 49 | 95 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.85 |
| K% Δ | -0.007 |
| Sample | 26.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 45.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 188 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.8% | 19.3% to 34.9% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.0% to 11.9% | +/- 3.4% |
| Whiff% | 26.1% | 21.3% to 31.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.36 | 0.65 to 2.41 | +/- 0.88 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.299 | 0.258 to 0.356 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 5.1% to 12.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 3.89 | 2.36 to 6.66 | +/- 2.15 |
| FIP | 4.03 | 2.74 to 5.45 | +/- 1.36 |
| WHIP | 1.193 | 0.952 to 1.564 | +/- 0.306 |
vs LHH
1618 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
vs RHH
1699 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 24.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 9.3% |