Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 33 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2015-09-27 |
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks
Max Kepler
LF · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 33
Club Arizona Diamondbacks
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 399 | 43 | 93 | 8 | 1 | .253 | .302 | .380 | .682 |
| 2025 | 474 | 58 | 90 | 18 | 3 | .216 | .300 | .391 | .691 |
| 2026 | 139 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 0 | .214 | .273 | .317 | .590 |
| 12 Seasons | 4864 | 623 | 1010 | 181 | 38 | .235 | .315 | .422 | .737 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.281
0.297
0.312
0.326
wOBA
0.216
0.238
0.263
0.289
0.311
ISO
0.086
0.105
0.126
0.146
0.165
K%
18.5%
20.0%
21.7%
23.4%
24.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
63
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%40.8%
61
xBA0.282
15
xSLG0.454
31
xwOBA0.277
23
-40 vs proj
BB%7.9%
44
Bat speed69.3
45
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
18
Arm Strength87.8 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.7 · LF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · LF
41
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
18
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
35 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.053 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Kepler’s wOBA sits at 0.263, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.013, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 139 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-07-21 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 14 | 2026-08-29 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.726 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.316 xwOBA | 16 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2B, 2 K, R |