Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.277 vs 0.240 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Kepler, Max
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.281
0.297
0.312
0.326
wOBA
0.216
0.238
0.263
0.289
0.311
ISO
0.086
0.105
0.126
0.146
0.165
K%
18.5%
20.0%
21.7%
23.4%
24.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
63
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%40.8%
61
xBA0.282
15
xSLG0.454
31
xwOBA0.277
23
-40 vs proj
BB%7.9%
44
Bat speed69.3
45
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
18
Arm Strength87.8 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.7 · LF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · LF
41
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
18
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
35 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.053 |
| Sample | 139 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 496 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.279 to 0.354 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.097 to 0.219 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 4.3% to 7.8% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 37.2% to 47.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 21.2% | 17.7% to 26.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 6.5% to 11.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.236 to 0.316 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
1201 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
3718 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |