Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Clay Holmes

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 245 lb · Age 33

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024353.146703063.0681.30
20251283.5333310165.21291.30
2026662.091414081.2631.07
9 Seasons42363.433584974584.25521.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal7 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace2.49
ERA rolling p502.90
Observed weight58%
ERA
1.82 2.33 2.90 3.46 3.97
FIP
2.86 3.22 3.61 4.00 4.36
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.8% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 9.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA2.49
90
BB%8.3%
58
K%19.3%
31
xwOBA allowed0.305
61 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
27
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
27
Whiff%19.4%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+101
45
Changeup Stuff+104
67
Curveball Stuff+103
53
Cutter Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Clay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-08-21: 0.3092026-08-22: 0.3092026-08-23: 0.3092026-08-24: 0.3092026-08-25: 0.3112026-08-26: 0.3112026-08-27: 0.3082026-08-28: 0.3082026-08-29: 0.3082026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.305 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Clay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.7%Sweeper: 18.2%Changeup: 13.9%Cutter: 10.3%Curveball: 7.2%4-Seam Fastball: 0.8% SI50% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 50%ST 18%CH 14%FC 10%CU 7%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphFC86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.4% 575 101 qualified
SL 19.2% 224 101 qualified
CH 14.6% 170 104 limited sample
FC 8.3% 97 102 limited sample
CB 7.6% 89 103 limited sample
FB 0.9% 10 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 5"
Weight245 lb
Debut2018-04-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.53
K% Δ+0.001

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.257
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.305

Holmes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.257, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.048, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 82 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-08-31Sinker played up through SI/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.3% K | 4.02 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 @ LAD2 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ SF0 ER / 4 K7.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ STL2 ER / 5 K5.2 IP