Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Clay Holmes

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 245 lb · Age 33

Cards
10
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Injured 60-Day Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024353.146703063.0681.30
20251283.5333310165.21291.30
2026442.3999052.2451.10
9 Seasons40343.533534474555.25341.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace2.39
ERA rolling p502.97
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.90 2.41 2.97 3.54 4.05
FIP
2.94 3.29 3.68 4.07 4.42
K%
17.4% 18.9% 20.6% 22.3% 23.8%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.2% 10.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
82
ERA2.39
89
BB%8.4%
55
K%20.9%
39
xwOBA allowed0.306
58
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
18
Whiff%19.6%
22
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+110
93
Curveball Stuff+101
36
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+105
71
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Clay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-06: 0.3062026-07-07: 0.3062026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.306 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Clay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 50.5%Sweeper: 19.0%Changeup: 14.6%Curveball: 8.8%Cutter: 7.0%4-Seam Fastball: 0.1% SI50% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 50%ST 19%CH 15%CU 9%FC 7%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphCutter: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.5% 418 102 qualified
SL 19.0% 157 105 limited sample
CH 14.6% 121 110 limited sample
CB 8.8% 73 101 limited sample
FC 7.0% 58 103 limited sample
FB 0.1% 1 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 5"
Weight245 lb
Debut2018-04-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.69
K% Δ+0.017

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.265
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.306

Holmes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.265, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.041, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 53 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching102026-05-09Sinker played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.2% K | 4.08 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 @ LAD2 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ SF0 ER / 4 K7.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ STL2 ER / 5 K5.2 IP