Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Holmes, Clay

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.5% to 25.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace2.39
ERA rolling p502.97
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.90 2.41 2.97 3.54 4.05
FIP
2.94 3.29 3.68 4.07 4.42
K%
17.4% 18.9% 20.6% 22.3% 23.8%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.2% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
82
ERA2.39
89
BB%8.4%
55
K%20.9%
39
xwOBA allowed0.306
58
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
18
Whiff%19.6%
22
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+110
93
Curveball Stuff+101
36
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+105
71
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Clay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-07: 0.3062026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.3062026-07-18: 0.306 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Clay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 50.5%Sweeper: 19.0%Changeup: 14.6%Curveball: 8.8%Cutter: 7.0%4-Seam Fastball: 0.1% SI50% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 50%ST 19%CH 15%CU 9%FC 7%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphCutter: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.5% 418 102 qualified
SL 19.0% 157 105 limited sample
CH 14.6% 121 110 limited sample
CB 8.8% 73 101 limited sample
FC 7.0% 58 103 limited sample
FB 0.1% 1 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Sweeper 19%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.69
K% Δ+0.017
Sample52.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.6----
Batters Faced316----
K%19.2%15.5% to 25.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.3% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.8%18.2% to 26.8%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.110.30 to 1.57+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3210.267 to 0.331+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed7.0%4.4% to 9.4%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.082.14 to 5.17+/- 1.52
FIP4.152.75 to 4.84+/- 1.05
WHIP1.4051.065 to 1.560+/- 0.247
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1072 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%17.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

1270 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.8%