Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Sweeper 19%, Changeup 16%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Holmes, Clay
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team NYM
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 33
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.50 |
| ERA current pace | 2.39 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.97 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
ERA
1.90
2.41
2.97
3.54
4.05
FIP
2.94
3.29
3.68
4.07
4.42
K%
17.4%
18.9%
20.6%
22.3%
23.8%
BB%
6.5%
7.3%
8.2%
9.2%
10.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
55
Barrel allowed5.3%
79
+19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
22
K%20.9%
40
Whiff%19.6%
21
xwOBA allowed0.306
58
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 50.5% | 418 | 102 | qualified |
| SL | 19.0% | 157 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.6% | 121 | 110 | limited sample |
| CB | 8.8% | 73 | 101 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.0% | 58 | 103 | limited sample |
| FB | 0.1% | 1 | 110 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.69 |
| K% Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 52.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 72.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 312 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.2% | 15.5% to 25.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.3% to 11.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Whiff% | 20.8% | 18.2% to 26.8% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.11 | 0.30 to 1.57 | +/- 0.63 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.321 | 0.267 to 0.331 | +/- 0.032 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.0% | 4.4% to 9.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.08 | 2.14 to 5.17 | +/- 1.52 |
| FIP | 4.15 | 2.75 to 4.84 | +/- 1.05 |
| WHIP | 1.405 | 1.066 to 1.560 | +/- 0.247 |
vs LHH
1072 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 10.2% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |
vs RHH
1270 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |