Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Holmes, Clay

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.5% to 25.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal7 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace2.09
ERA rolling p502.67
Observed weight58%
ERA
1.59 2.10 2.67 3.23 3.74
FIP
2.86 3.22 3.61 4.00 4.36
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.8% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA2.09
95
BB%8.3%
57
K%19.3%
30
xwOBA allowed0.305
60 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
27
Whiff%19.4%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+101
46
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+103
53
Cutter Stuff+102
49
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Clay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-08-25: 0.3112026-08-26: 0.3112026-08-27: 0.3082026-08-28: 0.3082026-08-29: 0.3082026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3052026-09-02: 0.3052026-09-03: 0.3052026-09-04: 0.3052026-09-05: 0.305 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Clay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.8%Sweeper: 18.2%Changeup: 13.8%Cutter: 10.3%Curveball: 7.2%4-Seam Fastball: 0.8% SI50% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 50%ST 18%CH 14%FC 10%CU 7%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphFC86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.4% 575 101 qualified
SL 19.2% 224 101 qualified
CH 14.6% 170 104 limited sample
FC 8.3% 97 102 limited sample
CB 7.6% 89 103 limited sample
FB 0.9% 10 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Sweeper 19%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.93
K% Δ+0.001
Sample81.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.6----
Batters Faced316----
K%19.2%15.5% to 25.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.3% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.8%18.2% to 26.8%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.110.30 to 1.57+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3170.263 to 0.327+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed7.0%4.4% to 9.4%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.022.11 to 5.10+/- 1.50
FIP4.152.75 to 4.84+/- 1.05
WHIP1.4121.071 to 1.568+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1072 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%17.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

1270 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.8%