Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Francisco Giants Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Francisco Giants

Adrian Houser

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 227 lb · Age 33

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Francisco Giants Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024155.84237169.1451.53
2025853.3121210125.0921.28
2026264.951814080.0551.40
10 Seasons42504.151911391813.26311.36
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace4.95
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.60 4.11 4.69 5.26 5.78
FIP
3.86 4.24 4.66 5.08 5.45
K%
14.4% 15.4% 16.6% 17.7% 18.8%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA4.95
26
BB%7.7%
65
K%15.9%
11
xwOBA allowed0.345
21
Barrel allowed8.8%
34
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
30
Whiff%16.7%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+100
23
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+109
92
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Houser, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.345 2026-07-07: 0.3532026-07-08: 0.3532026-07-09: 0.3452026-07-10: 0.3452026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3452026-07-13: 0.3452026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.3452026-07-17: 0.3452026-07-18: 0.345 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Houser, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.7%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Changeup: 16.8%Slider: 11.7%Curveball: 8.4% SI46% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 46%FF 17%CH 17%SL 12%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 46% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.4% 465 103 qualified
CH 18.1% 185 99 limited sample
FB 16.6% 170 103 limited sample
SL 12.1% 124 109 limited sample
CB 7.8% 80 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 4"
Weight227 lb
Debut2015-09-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.47
K% Δ-0.009

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.382
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.345

Houser’s wOBA-against sits at 0.382, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.345 — a gap of 0.037, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 86 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-06-17Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.8% K | 4.48 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 @ BAL4 ER / 3 K4.2 IP
2026-04-06 vs PHI4 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ SD1 ER / 4 K5.1 IP