Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Colin Rea

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 220 lb · Age 36

Cards
20
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241264.2932271167.21351.26
20251173.9532271159.11271.25
2026884.4529191129.1971.35
8 Seasons45354.421551223735.15901.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal7 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.45
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.19 3.77 4.41 5.06 5.64
FIP
4.00 4.35 4.74 5.13 5.48
K%
15.9% 16.8% 17.9% 19.0% 20.0%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA4.45
39
BB%8.3%
57 -22 vs proj
K%17.8%
18
xwOBA allowed0.357
11
Barrel allowed10.0%
15
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
32
Whiff%18.2%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-04
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+103
59
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Curveball Stuff+103
55
Cutter Stuff+99
27
Sinker Stuff+97
15
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rea, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.357 2026-08-24: 0.3592026-08-25: 0.3582026-08-26: 0.3582026-08-27: 0.3582026-08-28: 0.3582026-08-29: 0.3582026-08-30: 0.3582026-08-31: 0.3582026-09-01: 0.3562026-09-02: 0.3562026-09-03: 0.3572026-09-04: 0.357 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rea, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.3%Changeup: 18.0%Slider: 11.2%Sweeper: 9.0%Sinker: 8.9%Curveball: 5.8% FF41% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 18%SL 11%ST 9%SI 9%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.2% 576 99 qualified
SL 23.4% 292 103 qualified
SI 10.1% 126 97 limited sample
CH 6.8% 85 106 limited sample
FC 6.7% 84 99 limited sample
CB 6.7% 83 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 5"
Weight220 lb
Debut2015-08-11
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.10
K% Δ+0.009

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.354
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.357

Rea’s wOBA-against sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.357 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 134 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching202026-08-024-Seam Fastball played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.9% K | 4.55 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs STL1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-20 vs PHI1 ER / 5 K6.2 IP
2026-04-14 @ PHI3 ER / 5 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ TB1 ER / 2 K5.0 IP
2026-04-03 @ CLE1 ER / 4 K3.1 IP