Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Rea, Colin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal7 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.45
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.19 3.77 4.41 5.06 5.64
FIP
4.00 4.35 4.74 5.13 5.48
K%
15.9% 16.8% 17.9% 19.0% 20.0%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA4.45
39
BB%8.3%
57 -22 vs proj
K%17.8%
18
xwOBA allowed0.357
11
Barrel allowed10.0%
15
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
32
Whiff%18.2%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-04
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+103
59
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Curveball Stuff+103
55
Cutter Stuff+99
27
Sinker Stuff+97
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rea, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.357 2026-08-24: 0.3592026-08-25: 0.3582026-08-26: 0.3582026-08-27: 0.3582026-08-28: 0.3582026-08-29: 0.3582026-08-30: 0.3582026-08-31: 0.3582026-09-01: 0.3562026-09-02: 0.3562026-09-03: 0.3572026-09-04: 0.357 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rea, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.3%Changeup: 18.0%Slider: 11.2%Sweeper: 9.0%Sinker: 8.9%Curveball: 5.8% FF41% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 18%SL 11%ST 9%SI 9%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.2% 576 99 qualified
SL 23.4% 292 103 qualified
SI 10.1% 126 97 limited sample
CH 6.8% 85 106 limited sample
FC 6.7% 84 99 limited sample
CB 6.7% 83 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.334 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 12%, Sinker 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.10
K% Δ+0.009
Sample133.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings80.8----
Batters Faced345----
K%16.9%14.1% to 24.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.9%4.9% to 9.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%17.9%15.8% to 22.9%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.580.93 to 2.42+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3470.289 to 0.368+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 12.8%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.553.06 to 6.22+/- 1.58
FIP4.893.70 to 5.63+/- 0.96
WHIP1.3311.119 to 1.601+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1347 career BF

xwOBA0.334
K%16.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

1318 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.3%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.6%