Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo

P profile with live context, projection links, and Mithrandir card history when available.

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p503.87
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.91 3.36 3.87 4.37 4.83
FIP
3.16 3.53 3.95 4.36 4.73
K%
17.1% 18.4% 19.8% 21.3% 22.6%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
61
Barrel allowed10.1%
24 -15 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
13
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
29
K%20.0%
32
Whiff%15.8%
5
xwOBA allowed0.348
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3462026-05-19: 0.3462026-05-21: 0.3482026-05-23: 0.3482026-05-24: 0.3472026-05-25: 0.3552026-05-26: 0.3552026-05-28: 0.3562026-05-29: 0.3552026-05-30: 0.3552026-05-31: 0.3552026-06-01: 0.348 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 20.3%4-Seam Fastball: 17.2%Cutter: 15.2%Curveball: 14.7%Slider: 9.5%Sweeper: 9.5% MIX SI 21%FF 18%FC 16%CU 15%SL 10%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.3, IVB 2.0SIFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.4FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.8FCCU: HB 0.8, IVB 5.1CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.1SLST: HB 0.3, IVB 3.7STCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.8CHSV: HB -0.4, IVB 4.3SV horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 228 102 qualified
SI 20.2% 208 108 qualified
FB 16.8% 173 100 limited sample
CB 16.7% 172 105 limited sample
FC 15.5% 160 101 limited sample
CH 8.6% 88 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2016-07-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.36
K% Δ+0.017

positive regression

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-05-24Cutter played up through FC/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.3% K | 5.10 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 ER / 7 K7.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ DET1 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-09 vs CWS1 ER / 4 K6.1 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIL2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ ATL0 ER / 3 K6.1 IP