Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lugo, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
14.6% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal7 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.38
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.38 3.86 4.38 4.91 5.38
FIP
3.75 4.13 4.56 4.99 5.38
K%
16.9% 18.0% 19.3% 20.5% 21.6%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
21
ERA4.56
35
BB%7.9%
63
K%19.1%
27
xwOBA allowed0.357
12
Barrel allowed10.1%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
14
Whiff%16.5%
6
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Slider Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.357 2026-07-07: 0.3532026-07-08: 0.3532026-07-09: 0.3562026-07-10: 0.3562026-07-11: 0.3562026-07-12: 0.3562026-07-13: 0.3562026-07-14: 0.3572026-07-15: 0.3572026-07-16: 0.3572026-07-17: 0.3572026-07-18: 0.357 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 19.7%4-Seam Fastball: 16.9%Cutter: 16.5%Curveball: 14.8%Sweeper: 9.7%Slider: 8.8% SI20% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 20%FF 17%FC 17%CU 15%ST 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 77.1 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 79.0 mphST79 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.9 mphCH85 mphSlurve: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.7 mphSV78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 268 103 qualified
SI 19.7% 238 107 qualified
FB 17.2% 208 100 qualified
CB 16.7% 201 105 qualified
FC 15.4% 186 101 limited sample
CH 8.7% 105 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Curveball 18%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.008
Sample106.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.6----
Batters Faced613----
K%18.3%14.6% to 25.0%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.8%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.3%15.4% to 23.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.14+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3410.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.0% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA5.102.79 to 5.48+/- 1.34
FIP4.613.30 to 5.49+/- 1.10
WHIP1.4171.051 to 1.522+/- 0.236
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2163 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%18.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

2124 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.8%