Mithrandir Metrics
Player Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Max Fried

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 190 lb · Age 32

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202411103.2529290174.11661.16
20251952.8632320195.11891.10
2026433.211010061.2501.01
10 Seasons96443.0421019301141.111021.14
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal7 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.23
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.22
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.40 2.79 3.22 3.65 4.03
FIP
2.46 2.77 3.12 3.47 3.78
K%
18.2% 19.5% 21.0% 22.5% 23.9%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
83
ERA3.21
71
BB%8.8%
49 -24 vs proj
K%19.8%
32 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.253
95 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.2%
99 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
81
Whiff%21.5%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Changeup Stuff+100
36
Curveball Stuff+103
74
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+105
71
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fried, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.253 2026-07-08: 0.2532026-07-09: 0.2532026-07-10: 0.2532026-07-11: 0.2532026-07-12: 0.2532026-07-13: 0.2532026-07-14: 0.2532026-07-15: 0.2532026-07-16: 0.2532026-07-17: 0.2532026-07-18: 0.2532026-07-19: 0.253 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fried, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fried, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 21.8%Sinker: 21.6%4-Seam Fastball: 17.1%Changeup: 14.1%Curveball: 13.8%Sweeper: 10.0% FC22% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 22%SI 22%FF 17%CH 14%CU 14%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fried, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Cutter: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.0 mphFC92 mphSinker: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 73.9 mphCU74 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 22.4% 205 101 qualified
SI 22.1% 203 101 qualified
FB 16.8% 154 104 limited sample
CB 14.2% 130 103 limited sample
CH 13.7% 126 100 limited sample
SL 10.8% 99 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 4"
Weight190 lb
Debut2017-08-08
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.23
K% Δ-0.023

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.285
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.253

Fried’s wOBA-against sits at 0.285, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.253 — a gap of 0.032, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 65 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-08Contact quality stayed muted throughout the start
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.2% K | 3.44 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ TB3 ER / 6 K8.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs MIA3 ER / 4 K6.2 IP
2026-03-31 @ SEA0 ER / 6 K7.0 IP
2026-03-25 @ SF0 ER / 4 K6.1 IP