Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 27%, Sinker 18%, Curveball 17%.
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026
Fried, Max
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 32
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.23 |
| ERA current pace | 3.21 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.22 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
ERA
2.40
2.79
3.22
3.65
4.03
FIP
2.46
2.77
3.12
3.47
3.78
K%
18.2%
19.5%
21.0%
22.5%
23.9%
BB%
6.3%
7.0%
7.8%
8.5%
9.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
50
-21 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.2%
98
+38 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
79
K%19.8%
31
-19 vs proj
Whiff%21.5%
38
xwOBA allowed0.253
92
+37 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
55
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
22%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 22.4% | 205 | 101 | qualified |
| SI | 22.1% | 203 | 101 | qualified |
| FB | 16.8% | 154 | 104 | limited sample |
| CB | 14.2% | 130 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 13.7% | 126 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 10.8% | 99 | 104 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.23 |
| K% Δ | -0.023 |
| Sample | 65.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 145.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 607 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.2% | 18.9% to 28.7% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 5.7% to 9.5% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 20.1% to 27.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.09 | 0.45 to 1.64 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.250 to 0.326 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.1% | 4.7% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 3.44 | 2.49 to 4.80 | +/- 1.16 |
| FIP | 3.54 | 2.32 to 4.20 | +/- 0.94 |
| WHIP | 1.223 | 1.040 to 1.450 | +/- 0.205 |
vs LHH
1162 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |
vs RHH
3790 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |