Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Lucas Giolito

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 245 lb · Age 32

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20238154.8833330184.12041.31
20251043.4126260145.01211.29
2026235.1675029.2181.85
10 Seasons73694.3221320901188.112161.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
8
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal5 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace5.16
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.50 3.98 4.52 5.06 5.54
FIP
4.33 4.70 5.11 5.53 5.90
K%
15.1% 16.6% 18.2% 19.8% 21.3%
BB%
9.6% 10.6% 11.7% 12.8% 13.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.90
1
ERA5.16
21
BB%16.7%
1 -49 vs proj
K%13.0%
3 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.358
11 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.2%
91 +55 vs proj
Fastball velo90.8
6
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
20
Whiff%23.1%
52 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+97
2
Fastball Stuff+100
30
Mithrandir Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+91
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Giolito, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.358 2026-07-07: 0.3582026-07-08: 0.3582026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3582026-07-11: 0.3582026-07-12: 0.3582026-07-13: 0.3582026-07-14: 0.3582026-07-15: 0.3582026-07-16: 0.3582026-07-17: 0.3582026-07-18: 0.358 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Giolito, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 36%36%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Giolito, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.6%Changeup: 34.7%Slider: 17.1%Curveball: 6.7% FF42% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 42%CH 35%SL 17%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Giolito, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 90.8 mphFF91 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 79.0 mphCH79 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 76.9 mphCU77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.0% 132 100 limited sample
CH 35.4% 114 104 limited sample
SL 17.1% 55 91 limited sample
CB 6.5% 21 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 6"
Weight245 lb
Debut2016-06-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.74
K% Δ-0.063
Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-05-23Changeup played up through CH/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.3% K | 4.42 ERAProjection