Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Slider 26%, Changeup 23%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Giolito, Lucas
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SD
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
8
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.15 |
| ERA current pace | 5.16 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.52 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
ERA
3.50
3.98
4.52
5.06
5.54
FIP
4.33
4.70
5.11
5.53
5.90
K%
15.1%
16.6%
18.2%
19.8%
21.3%
BB%
9.6%
10.6%
11.7%
12.8%
13.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.90
1
ERA5.16
21
BB%16.7%
1
-49 vs proj
K%13.0%
3
-26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.358
11
-30 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.2%
91
+55 vs proj
Fastball velo90.8
6
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
20
Whiff%23.1%
52
+23 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+97
2
Fastball Stuff+100
30
Mithrandir Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+91
4
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 41.0% | 132 | 100 | limited sample |
| CH | 35.4% | 114 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 17.1% | 55 | 91 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.5% | 21 | 97 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.74 |
| K% Δ | -0.063 |
| Sample | 29.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 143.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 619 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.3% | 17.5% to 26.1% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.7% to 11.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 20.5% | 19.1% to 26.5% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.43 | 0.92 to 2.14 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.322 | 0.281 to 0.358 | +/- 0.039 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 4.4% to 12.5% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 4.42 | 2.94 to 5.72 | +/- 1.39 |
| FIP | 4.38 | 3.43 to 5.58 | +/- 1.07 |
| WHIP | 1.314 | 1.060 to 1.549 | +/- 0.245 |
vs LHH
2412 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.319 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 10.7% |
vs RHH
2681 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.310 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |