Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Michael Wacha

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 215 lb · Age 35

Cards
25
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241383.3529290166.21451.19
202510133.8631310172.21261.22
2026883.3227270170.21361.10
14 Seasons119833.8333631501798.015521.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA3.49
67
BB%6.3%
86
K%20.0%
35
xwOBA allowed0.308
56
Barrel allowed7.4%
52
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
53
Whiff%19.1%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+108
95
Cutter Stuff+103
67
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+102
39
Slider Stuff+103
63
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-08-21: 0.3142026-08-22: 0.3142026-08-23: 0.3142026-08-24: 0.3142026-08-25: 0.3132026-08-26: 0.3132026-08-27: 0.3132026-08-28: 0.3132026-08-29: 0.3132026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.308 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Changeup: 24.5%Cutter: 15.0%Sinker: 14.7%Curveball: 9.9%Slider: 8.9% FF27% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 27%CH 25%FC 15%SI 15%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphSinker: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.6% 454 103 qualified
CH 24.1% 395 108 qualified
FC 14.8% 243 103 qualified
SI 14.6% 239 100 qualified
CB 9.8% 161 102 limited sample
SL 9.1% 150 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 6"
Weight215 lb
Debut2013-05-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.330
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.308

Wacha’s wOBA-against sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.308 — a gap of 0.022, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 176 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching252026-08-28Four-Seam Fastball played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.8% K | 4.35 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BOS1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ NYY2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs CWS0 ER / 7 K8.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE1 ER / 3 K7.0 IP