Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Oct 21 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Michael Wacha

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 215 lb · Age 35

Cards
29
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241383.3529290166.21451.19
202510133.8631310172.21261.22
20269103.3232320200.21581.11
14 Seasons120853.8334132001828.015741.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.32
75
BB%6.8%
82
K%19.6%
33
xwOBA allowed0.308
55
Barrel allowed7.6%
47
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
53
Whiff%19.3%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-21
Changeup Stuff+109
93
Cutter Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+103
59
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.308 2026-10-10: 0.3082026-10-11: 0.3082026-10-12: 0.3082026-10-13: 0.3082026-10-14: 0.3082026-10-15: 0.3082026-10-16: 0.3082026-10-17: 0.3082026-10-18: 0.3082026-10-19: 0.3082026-10-20: 0.3082026-10-21: 0.308 2026-10-10 2026-10-21 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Changeup: 24.8%Cutter: 14.9%Sinker: 14.1%Curveball: 9.7%Slider: 9.0% FF28% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 25%FC 15%SI 14%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphSinker: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.3% 576 103 qualified
CH 24.8% 505 109 qualified
FC 14.7% 300 103 qualified
SI 13.6% 276 100 qualified
CB 9.3% 190 102 limited sample
SL 9.2% 187 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 6"
Weight215 lb
Debut2013-05-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.333
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.308

Wacha’s wOBA-against sits at 0.333, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.308 — a gap of 0.025, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 206 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching292026-09-26Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-05-20 vs BOS1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ NYY2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs CWS0 ER / 7 K8.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE1 ER / 3 K7.0 IP