Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Michael Wacha

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 215 lb · Age 35

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241383.3529290166.21451.19
202510133.8631310172.21261.22
2026573.7719190119.1961.19
14 Seasons116823.8832830701746.215121.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight69%
ERA
3.03 3.49 3.99 4.50 4.96
FIP
3.55 3.84 4.17 4.49 4.78
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.5% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
62
ERA3.77
56
BB%7.2%
72
K%20.0%
33 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
49 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
59 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
54
Whiff%19.5%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+108
86
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Curveball Stuff+102
40
Cutter Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+105
72
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.315 2026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3122026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.3152026-07-17: 0.315 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.2%Changeup: 23.0%Sinker: 15.8%Cutter: 15.7%Curveball: 9.9%Slider: 9.3% FF26% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 26%CH 23%SI 16%FC 16%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 80.6 mphCH81 mphSinker: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 76.2 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 364 104 qualified
CH 22.3% 284 108 qualified
SI 15.3% 195 98 limited sample
FC 14.5% 185 103 limited sample
CB 10.0% 127 102 limited sample
SL 9.2% 117 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 6"
Weight215 lb
Debut2013-05-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ+0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.354
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.315

Wacha’s wOBA-against sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.315 — a gap of 0.039, 1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 125 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-09Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.8% K | 4.36 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BOS1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ NYY2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs CWS0 ER / 7 K8.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE1 ER / 3 K7.0 IP