Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Wacha, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace2.69
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.52 2.95 3.43 3.91 4.35
FIP
3.60 3.87 4.18 4.49 4.77
K%
17.9% 19.0% 20.3% 21.6% 22.7%
BB%
6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
49 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
38
Fastball velo92.9
26
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
40
K%21.7%
47 +28 vs proj
Whiff%21.2%
33
xwOBA allowed0.314
49 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3152026-05-19: 0.3152026-05-21: 0.3152026-05-23: 0.3122026-05-24: 0.3122026-05-25: 0.3122026-05-26: 0.3152026-05-28: 0.3152026-05-29: 0.3152026-05-30: 0.3152026-05-31: 0.3152026-06-01: 0.314 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.4%Changeup: 22.2%Sinker: 15.6%Cutter: 15.5%Curveball: 9.1%Slider: 9.1% MIX FF 28%CH 22%SI 16%FC 15%CU 9%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.8CHSI: HB 0.5, IVB 1.3SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.0FCCU: HB 0.3, IVB 5.0CUSL: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.1% 319 103 qualified
CH 22.8% 250 107 qualified
FC 15.3% 168 102 limited sample
SI 14.7% 161 97 limited sample
CB 9.7% 106 102 limited sample
SL 8.4% 92 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Changeup 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ+0.039
Sample82.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.7----
Batters Faced602----
K%17.8%15.3% to 23.8%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.7%5.2% to 9.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.4%16.9% to 23.9%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.370.75 to 1.93+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.290 to 0.356+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.363.19 to 5.74+/- 1.27
FIP4.253.44 to 5.07+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3801.102 to 1.558+/- 0.228
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2899 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%17.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

3511 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%