Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Wacha, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace3.32
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.60 3.08 3.61 4.14 4.62
FIP
3.52 3.82 4.16 4.50 4.81
K%
17.8% 18.6% 19.6% 20.5% 21.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.1% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA3.32
73
BB%6.3%
86
K%20.0%
35 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
58 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
54
Whiff%19.1%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+109
96
Cutter Stuff+103
67
Fastball Stuff+104
57
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
38
Slider Stuff+103
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-08-23: 0.3142026-08-24: 0.3142026-08-25: 0.3132026-08-26: 0.3132026-08-27: 0.3132026-08-28: 0.3132026-08-29: 0.3132026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3082026-09-02: 0.3082026-09-03: 0.308 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Changeup: 24.5%Cutter: 15.0%Sinker: 14.7%Curveball: 9.9%Slider: 8.9% FF27% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 27%CH 25%FC 15%SI 15%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphSinker: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.6% 454 104 qualified
CH 24.1% 395 109 qualified
FC 14.8% 243 103 qualified
SI 14.6% 239 100 qualified
CB 9.8% 161 102 limited sample
SL 9.1% 150 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Changeup 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ+0.022
Sample176.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.5----
Batters Faced601----
K%17.8%15.3% to 23.8%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.7%5.2% to 9.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.4%16.9% to 23.9%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.370.75 to 1.93+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.290 to 0.356+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.363.19 to 5.74+/- 1.27
FIP4.253.44 to 5.07+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3801.102 to 1.558+/- 0.228
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2899 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%17.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

3511 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%