Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Matt Strahm

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 2", 190 lb · Age 34

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024621.87660362.2790.75
2025232.74660662.1701.07
2026337.18350031.1251.50
11 Seasons37413.584303515548.26071.13
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace7.18
ERA rolling p504.98
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.70 4.31 4.98 5.65 6.26
FIP
3.53 4.03 4.59 5.16 5.66
K%
17.1% 19.5% 22.3% 25.1% 27.5%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.2% 9.5% 10.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
17
ERA7.18
3
BB%8.9%
46 -22 vs proj
K%18.5%
22 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
57 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo91.3
8
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
48
Whiff%20.1%
26 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Cutter Stuff+98
12
Fastball Stuff+104
59
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+102
50
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Strahm, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-07-07: 0.3002026-07-08: 0.3002026-07-09: 0.3012026-07-10: 0.2992026-07-11: 0.2992026-07-12: 0.3042026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.3072026-07-17: 0.3072026-07-18: 0.307 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Strahm, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strahm, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.9%Slider: 29.9%Sinker: 14.9%Changeup: 11.2%Cutter: 9.1% FF35% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 30%SI 15%CH 11%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strahm, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphSlider: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.2 mphSL81 mphSinker: 15% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.2 mphCH82 mphCutter: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.3% 109 104 limited sample
SL 29.3% 88 102 limited sample
CH 14.0% 42 86 limited sample
SI 12.3% 37 108 limited sample
FC 8.0% 24 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 2"
Weight190 lb
Debut2016-07-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+3.53
K% Δ-0.071

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.410
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.307

Strahm’s wOBA-against sits at 0.410, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.307 — a gap of 0.103, 3.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 34 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.5% K | 3.65 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ DET0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs MIL2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-02 vs MIN0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP