Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Strahm, Matt

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
17.7% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace7.18
ERA rolling p504.98
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.70 4.31 4.98 5.65 6.26
FIP
3.53 4.03 4.59 5.16 5.66
K%
17.1% 19.5% 22.3% 25.1% 27.5%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.2% 9.5% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
17
ERA7.18
3
BB%8.9%
46 -22 vs proj
K%18.5%
22 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
57 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo91.3
8
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
48
Whiff%20.1%
26 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Cutter Stuff+98
12
Fastball Stuff+104
59
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Strahm, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.3002026-07-08: 0.3002026-07-09: 0.3012026-07-10: 0.2992026-07-11: 0.2992026-07-12: 0.3042026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.3072026-07-17: 0.307 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Strahm, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strahm, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.9%Slider: 29.9%Sinker: 14.9%Changeup: 11.2%Cutter: 9.1% FF35% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 30%SI 15%CH 11%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strahm, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphSlider: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.2 mphSL81 mphSinker: 15% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.2 mphCH82 mphCutter: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.3% 109 104 limited sample
SL 29.3% 88 102 limited sample
CH 14.0% 42 86 limited sample
SI 12.3% 37 108 limited sample
FC 8.0% 24 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 32%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.53
K% Δ-0.071
Sample34.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.4----
Batters Faced165----
K%25.5%17.7% to 34.2%+/- 8.3%
BB%7.5%4.8% to 11.7%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%23.2%17.5% to 28.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.110.59 to 1.71+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2870.252 to 0.337+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.2% to 11.2%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.651.93 to 5.47+/- 1.77
FIP3.432.52 to 5.47+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2030.950 to 1.579+/- 0.314
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

705 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%25.8%
BB%5.8%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

1572 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%25.8%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.7%