Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Ranger Suarez

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 217 lb · Age 30

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241283.4627270150.21451.20
20251283.2026260157.11511.22
2026433.151717091.1971.16
9 Seasons57403.352041364853.18021.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.15
ERA rolling p503.42
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.53 2.95 3.42 3.89 4.31
FIP
2.74 3.00 3.30 3.59 3.86
K%
21.4% 22.5% 23.8% 25.0% 26.1%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA3.15
73
BB%6.8%
79
K%25.3%
70 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
80 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
79 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.0
6
Hard-hit allowed31.2%
93
Whiff%22.5%
46 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Sinker Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Slider Stuff+96
13
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-07: 0.2832026-07-08: 0.2832026-07-09: 0.2832026-07-10: 0.2832026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.2832026-07-17: 0.2832026-07-18: 0.283 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 23.5%4-Seam Fastball: 21.7%Cutter: 21.0%Curveball: 16.5%Changeup: 14.9%Slider: 2.5% SI23% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 23%FF 22%FC 21%CU 17%CH 15%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.4 mphSI90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.9 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.4 mphCU75 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphSlider: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.2 mphSL78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.9% 287 100 qualified
FB 20.9% 231 100 qualified
FC 20.0% 221 101 qualified
CB 16.0% 177 98 limited sample
CH 15.2% 168 100 limited sample
SL 2.1% 23 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 1"
Weight217 lb
Debut2018-07-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.70
K% Δ+0.046

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.313
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.283

Suarez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.313, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.031, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 94 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-07-05Curveball played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-17 vs DET0 ER / 4 K8.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ STL0 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs SD4 ER / 2 K4.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ HOU4 ER / 3 K4.1 IP