Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Suarez, Ranger

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
19.1% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal7 metrics
25
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.64
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight69%
ERA
2.78 3.22 3.71 4.20 4.64
FIP
2.88 3.16 3.46 3.77 4.05
K%
20.2% 21.2% 22.3% 23.3% 24.3%
BB%
6.1% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
56
ERA3.64
63
BB%7.4%
71
K%22.7%
55 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
66
Barrel allowed5.4%
81 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
5
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
Whiff%20.6%
31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Curveball Stuff+100
15
Cutter Stuff+100
32
Fastball Stuff+100
30
Mithrandir Stuff+100
25
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+92
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-08-23: 0.2942026-08-24: 0.2942026-08-25: 0.2952026-08-26: 0.2952026-08-27: 0.2952026-08-28: 0.2952026-08-29: 0.2952026-08-30: 0.2952026-08-31: 0.3002026-09-01: 0.3002026-09-02: 0.3002026-09-03: 0.300 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 23.0%4-Seam Fastball: 22.5%Cutter: 19.9%Curveball: 16.4%Changeup: 13.8%Slider: 4.3% SI23% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 23%FF 23%FC 20%CU 16%CH 14%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.5 mphCU76 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphSlider: 4% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 78.8 mphSL79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.3% 345 100 qualified
FB 21.4% 292 100 qualified
FC 19.0% 259 100 qualified
CB 16.1% 220 100 qualified
CH 14.7% 201 100 qualified
SL 3.6% 49 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Changeup 19%, Cutter 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.21
K% Δ+0.021
Sample125.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.7----
Batters Faced327----
K%20.7%19.1% to 27.2%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.5%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%19.3%17.1% to 23.8%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.190.74 to 1.73+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.3040.282 to 0.329+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.852.94 to 5.38+/- 1.22
FIP3.792.97 to 4.49+/- 0.76
WHIP1.3341.154 to 1.583+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

735 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.4%
BB%5.0%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

2678 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.3%