Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Bryan Baker

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 235 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024115.01190023.1231.16
2025444.06730368.2831.11
2026101.733802536.1410.83
6 Seasons14113.54243229244.02751.14
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
91
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal4 metrics
83
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace1.73
ERA rolling p502.88
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.31 2.05 2.88 3.70 4.44
FIP
2.26 2.73 3.26 3.78 4.25
K%
23.3% 25.8% 28.5% 31.3% 33.8%
BB%
5.0% 6.3% 7.7% 9.2% 10.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.83
98
ERA1.73
97
BB%7.4%
70
K%29.7%
92
xwOBA allowed0.246
97 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
69 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
91
Whiff%28.0%
85 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+117
100
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baker, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.246 2026-07-07: 0.2502026-07-08: 0.2502026-07-09: 0.2492026-07-10: 0.2462026-07-11: 0.2462026-07-12: 0.2462026-07-13: 0.2462026-07-14: 0.2462026-07-15: 0.2462026-07-16: 0.2462026-07-17: 0.2462026-07-18: 0.246 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baker, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 61%61%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.2%Changeup: 44.2%Slider: 5.6% FF50% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 44%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 44% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSlider: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.2% 190 102 limited sample
CH 45.6% 176 111 limited sample
SL 5.2% 20 117 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 6"
Weight235 lb
Debut2021-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.08
K% Δ+0.025

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.231
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.246

Baker’s wOBA-against sits at 0.231, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.246 — a gap of 0.015, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202627.2% K | 3.82 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ CWS0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs NYY2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs CHC1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ STL0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP