Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Baker, Bryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.2% K%
Range
19.9% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
91
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal4 metrics
83
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace1.73
ERA rolling p502.88
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.31 2.05 2.88 3.70 4.44
FIP
2.26 2.73 3.26 3.78 4.25
K%
23.3% 25.8% 28.5% 31.3% 33.8%
BB%
5.0% 6.3% 7.7% 9.2% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.83
98
ERA1.73
97
BB%7.4%
70
K%29.7%
92
xwOBA allowed0.246
97 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
69 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
92
Whiff%28.0%
84 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+117
100
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baker, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.246 2026-07-06: 0.2502026-07-07: 0.2502026-07-08: 0.2502026-07-09: 0.2492026-07-10: 0.2462026-07-11: 0.2462026-07-12: 0.2462026-07-13: 0.2462026-07-14: 0.2462026-07-15: 0.2462026-07-16: 0.2462026-07-17: 0.246 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baker, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 61%61%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.2%Changeup: 44.2%Slider: 5.6% FF50% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 44%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 44% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSlider: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.2% 190 102 limited sample
CH 45.6% 176 111 limited sample
SL 5.2% 20 117 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 28%, Slider 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.09
K% Δ+0.025
Sample38.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.4----
Batters Faced155----
K%27.2%19.9% to 35.7%+/- 7.9%
BB%8.3%4.8% to 13.0%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%25.1%19.1% to 29.8%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.280.80 to 2.53+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3010.261 to 0.347+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.4% to 14.5%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.812.43 to 6.74+/- 2.15
FIP3.692.76 to 5.50+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2010.972 to 1.597+/- 0.312
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

369 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%25.8%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

536 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%25.7%
BB%6.5%
Barrel10.7%