Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 28%, Slider 25%.
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026
Baker, Bryan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TB
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.58 |
| ERA current pace | 2.42 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.22 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
ERA
1.59
2.37
3.22
4.08
4.86
FIP
2.34
2.83
3.37
3.92
4.41
K%
22.7%
25.4%
28.5%
31.5%
34.2%
BB%
5.6%
7.0%
8.7%
10.3%
11.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
30
-28 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
49
Fastball velo96.8
86
Hard-hit allowed31.2%
90
K%29.9%
90
Whiff%31.9%
93
+28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.267
86
+23 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
49%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 49.3% | 182 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 45.5% | 168 | 111 | limited sample |
| SL | 5.1% | 19 | 120 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.40 |
| K% Δ | +0.027 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 157 | -- | -- |
| K% | 27.2% | 19.9% to 35.7% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 4.8% to 13.0% | +/- 4.1% |
| Whiff% | 25.1% | 19.1% to 29.8% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.28 | 0.80 to 2.53 | +/- 0.86 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.300 | 0.261 to 0.347 | +/- 0.043 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.4% to 14.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 3.82 | 2.43 to 6.74 | +/- 2.15 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 2.76 to 5.50 | +/- 1.37 |
| WHIP | 1.207 | 0.972 to 1.597 | +/- 0.312 |
vs LHH
369 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 25.8% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |
vs RHH
536 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 25.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 10.7% |