Mithrandir Metrics
Player Minnesota Twins Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Minnesota Twins

Bailey Ober

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 9", 260 lb · Age 31

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Minnesota Twins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241293.9831310178.21911.00
2025695.1027270146.11201.30
2026774.4725241131.0961.30
6 Seasons38374.151401391748.27001.15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace4.47
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.39 3.87 4.41 4.95 5.43
FIP
4.21 4.43 4.67 4.92 5.14
K%
15.8% 16.7% 17.7% 18.8% 19.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.47
37
BB%7.0%
78
K%16.5%
12 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
30
Barrel allowed9.6%
17
Fastball velo88.2
1
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
51
Whiff%18.6%
16 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-20
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ober, Bailey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-10-09: 0.3302026-10-10: 0.3302026-10-11: 0.3302026-10-12: 0.3302026-10-13: 0.3302026-10-14: 0.3302026-10-15: 0.3302026-10-16: 0.3302026-10-17: 0.3302026-10-18: 0.3302026-10-19: 0.3302026-10-20: 0.330 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ober, Bailey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 33.4%4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Slider: 17.8%Sweeper: 12.4%Sinker: 3.6%Curveball: 1.6% CH33% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 33%FF 31%SL 18%ST 12%SI 4%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 33% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.6 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 88.1 mphFF88 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.5 mphSL82 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 76.1 mphST76 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.8 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 72.9 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 33.2% 497 106 qualified
FB 31.6% 473 105 qualified
SL 30.1% 451 101 qualified
SI 3.3% 49 99 limited sample
CB 1.8% 27 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 9"
Weight260 lb
Debut2021-05-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ-0.045

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.360
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.330

Ober’s wOBA-against sits at 0.360, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.330 — a gap of 0.030, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 139 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-09-26Four-Seam Fastball played up through CH/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.0% K | 4.22 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs BOS4 ER / 7 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs DET2 ER / 2 K5.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs TB3 ER / 4 K4.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ BAL3 ER / 1 K4.0 IP