Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 21 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ober, Bailey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.9% to 26.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-21
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace4.47
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight71%
ERA
3.39 3.87 4.41 4.95 5.43
FIP
4.21 4.43 4.67 4.92 5.14
K%
15.8% 16.7% 17.7% 18.8% 19.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.47
37
BB%7.0%
78
K%16.5%
12 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
30
Barrel allowed9.6%
17
Fastball velo88.2
1
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
51
Whiff%18.6%
16 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-21
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ober, Bailey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-10-10: 0.3302026-10-11: 0.3302026-10-12: 0.3302026-10-13: 0.3302026-10-14: 0.3302026-10-15: 0.3302026-10-16: 0.3302026-10-17: 0.3302026-10-18: 0.3302026-10-19: 0.3302026-10-20: 0.3302026-10-21: 0.330 2026-10-10 2026-10-21 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ober, Bailey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 33.4%4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Slider: 17.8%Sweeper: 12.4%Sinker: 3.6%Curveball: 1.6% CH33% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 33%FF 31%SL 18%ST 12%SI 4%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ober, Bailey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 33% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.6 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 88.1 mphFF88 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.5 mphSL82 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 76.1 mphST76 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.8 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 72.9 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 33.2% 497 106 qualified
FB 31.6% 473 105 qualified
SL 30.1% 451 101 qualified
SI 3.3% 49 99 limited sample
CB 1.8% 27 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 28%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ-0.045
Sample139.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings153.0----
Batters Faced635----
K%21.0%17.9% to 26.5%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.1%4.0% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.7% to 28.4%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.621.04 to 2.19+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3210.284 to 0.329+/- 0.023
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.4% to 12.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.223.41 to 5.78+/- 1.19
FIP4.413.47 to 4.54+/- 0.54
WHIP1.1960.982 to 1.393+/- 0.205
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1285 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%19.9%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

1375 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%23.0%
BB%5.1%
Barrel10.2%