Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Grant Holmes

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 226 lb · Age 30

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024213.56267068.1701.19
2025493.9922210115.01231.34
2026543.611817087.1761.32
3 Seasons11143.7666450270.22691.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.61
ERA rolling p503.57
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.59 3.06 3.57 4.09 4.56
FIP
3.99 4.29 4.62 4.96 5.26
K%
19.0% 20.2% 21.5% 22.8% 24.0%
BB%
8.1% 8.8% 9.7% 10.5% 11.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
49
ERA3.61
58
BB%10.6%
28 -18 vs proj
K%20.2%
33
xwOBA allowed0.329
35
Barrel allowed8.9%
33
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
16
Whiff%24.8%
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+96
13
Changeup Stuff+93
7
Curveball Stuff+102
54
Cutter Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-07: 0.3312026-07-08: 0.3312026-07-09: 0.3312026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.3292026-07-18: 0.329 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.2%4-Seam Fastball: 31.6%Sinker: 10.6%Curveball: 7.9%Cutter: 7.6%Changeup: 5.2% SL37% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 37%FF 32%SI 11%CU 8%FC 8%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.8% 347 96 qualified
FB 33.6% 309 102 qualified
CB 9.7% 89 102 limited sample
SI 8.9% 82 103 limited sample
CH 5.2% 48 93 limited sample
FC 4.8% 44 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight226 lb
Debut2024-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.44
K% Δ-0.018

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.334
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.329

Holmes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.334, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.329 — a gap of 0.006, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 92 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-07-08Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 4.05 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs MIA3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ LAA2 ER / 6 K6.2 IP
2026-04-03 @ AZ0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs KC3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP