Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Holmes, Grant

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.8% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.78
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.70 3.15 3.65 4.16 4.61
FIP
3.96 4.25 4.58 4.90 5.20
K%
19.6% 21.0% 22.6% 24.1% 25.5%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.6%
27 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.5%
28
Fastball velo94.2
48
Hard-hit allowed45.8%
13
K%21.5%
44
Whiff%26.9%
77
xwOBA allowed0.327
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3342026-05-19: 0.3242026-05-21: 0.3242026-05-23: 0.3242026-05-24: 0.3232026-05-25: 0.3232026-05-26: 0.3232026-05-28: 0.3232026-05-29: 0.3232026-05-30: 0.3232026-05-31: 0.3272026-06-01: 0.327 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 36.6%4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Curveball: 10.8%Sinker: 7.3%Changeup: 5.9%Cutter: 5.4% MIX SL 37%FF 34%CU 11%SI 7%CH 6%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.0, IVB 3.4SLFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFCU: HB 0.1, IVB 4.0CUSI: HB 0.9, IVB 2.0SICH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.6CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.8FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.3% 317 95 qualified
FB 35.0% 290 103 qualified
CB 10.3% 85 102 limited sample
SI 6.6% 55 103 limited sample
CH 5.0% 41 90 limited sample
FC 4.8% 40 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.27
K% Δ-0.005
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.1----
Batters Faced298----
K%22.0%18.8% to 28.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.9%6.6% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.8%22.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.92 to 1.94+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3150.278 to 0.347+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.052.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP4.103.10 to 4.85+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3321.083 to 1.568+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

397 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

415 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.9%