Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Holmes, Grant

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
18.8% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal7 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p503.59
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.56 3.05 3.59 4.13 4.62
FIP
3.85 4.17 4.52 4.87 5.19
K%
18.0% 19.0% 20.1% 21.2% 22.1%
BB%
8.1% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
54
ERA3.62
64
BB%10.0%
39
K%18.6%
24 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.333
29 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34
Fastball velo93.8
38
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
13
Whiff%25.2%
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-04
Fastball Stuff+102
44
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Slider Stuff+97
15
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Curveball Stuff+103
58
Cutter Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.333 2026-08-24: 0.3362026-08-25: 0.3372026-08-26: 0.3372026-08-27: 0.3372026-08-28: 0.3372026-08-29: 0.3372026-08-30: 0.3342026-08-31: 0.3342026-09-01: 0.3342026-09-02: 0.3332026-09-03: 0.3332026-09-04: 0.333 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.5%Sinker: 11.5%Cutter: 8.8%Curveball: 7.8%Changeup: 6.4% SL37% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 37%FF 29%SI 12%FC 9%CU 8%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSinker: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphCutter: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.2 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.7% 386 97 qualified
FB 31.5% 341 102 qualified
SI 10.7% 116 103 limited sample
CB 10.4% 112 103 limited sample
CH 6.2% 67 94 limited sample
FC 5.5% 60 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.44
K% Δ-0.036
Sample136.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.7----
Batters Faced317----
K%22.1%18.8% to 28.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.9%6.6% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.8%22.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.92 to 1.94+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3170.278 to 0.347+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.062.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP4.103.11 to 4.85+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3331.083 to 1.568+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

397 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

415 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.9%