Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Holmes, Grant

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.8% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.61
ERA rolling p503.57
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.59 3.06 3.57 4.09 4.56
FIP
3.99 4.29 4.62 4.96 5.26
K%
19.0% 20.2% 21.5% 22.8% 24.0%
BB%
8.1% 8.8% 9.7% 10.5% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
49
ERA3.61
58
BB%10.6%
28 -18 vs proj
K%20.2%
33
xwOBA allowed0.329
35
Barrel allowed8.9%
33
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
16
Whiff%24.8%
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+96
13
Changeup Stuff+93
7
Curveball Stuff+102
54
Cutter Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-07: 0.3312026-07-08: 0.3312026-07-09: 0.3312026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.3292026-07-18: 0.329 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.2%4-Seam Fastball: 31.6%Sinker: 10.6%Curveball: 7.9%Cutter: 7.6%Changeup: 5.2% SL37% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 37%FF 32%SI 11%CU 8%FC 8%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.8% 347 96 qualified
FB 33.6% 309 102 qualified
CB 9.7% 89 102 limited sample
SI 8.9% 82 103 limited sample
CH 5.2% 48 93 limited sample
FC 4.8% 44 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.44
K% Δ-0.018
Sample92.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.0----
Batters Faced301----
K%22.0%18.8% to 28.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.9%6.6% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.8%22.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.92 to 1.94+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3150.278 to 0.347+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.052.87 to 5.57+/- 1.35
FIP4.103.10 to 4.85+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3331.083 to 1.568+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

397 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

415 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.9%