Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Alex Lange

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 202 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024034.34210218.2211.77
2025000.001001.013.00
2026056.00380839.0371.51
6 Seasons15204.10234037223.22591.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.92
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.06 3.89 4.82 5.74 6.57
FIP
2.68 3.17 3.71 4.25 4.73
K%
19.5% 21.6% 23.8% 26.1% 28.1%
BB%
9.0% 10.6% 12.3% 14.1% 15.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.60
10
ERA5.92
12
BB%12.8%
13
K%20.9%
38 -36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.340
25 -33 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
11 -62 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
28
Whiff%25.3%
69 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Cutter Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+98
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lange, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.340 2026-07-07: 0.3342026-07-08: 0.3342026-07-09: 0.3342026-07-10: 0.3402026-07-11: 0.3402026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3402026-07-14: 0.3402026-07-15: 0.3402026-07-16: 0.3402026-07-17: 0.3402026-07-18: 0.340 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lange, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.4%Sinker: 23.4%Changeup: 21.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.3%Cutter: 10.5%Knuckle Curve: 0.1% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%SI 23%CH 21%FF 12%FC 11%KC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.7 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphKnuckle Curve: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.5 mphKC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 31.9% 158 98 limited sample
SI 22.4% 111 100 limited sample
CH 21.0% 104 104 limited sample
FB 13.5% 67 91 limited sample
FC 11.1% 55 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight202 lb
Debut2021-04-10
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.09
K% Δ-0.054

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.367
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.340

Lange’s wOBA-against sits at 0.367, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.340 — a gap of 0.027, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 40 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.2% K | 3.83 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-20 vs BAL4 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ NYY2 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs CWS0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ CLE1 ER / 2 K2.1 IP