Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lange, Alex

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
18.2% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.92
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.06 3.89 4.82 5.74 6.57
FIP
2.68 3.17 3.71 4.25 4.73
K%
19.5% 21.6% 23.8% 26.1% 28.1%
BB%
9.0% 10.6% 12.3% 14.1% 15.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.60
10
ERA5.92
12
BB%12.8%
13
K%20.9%
38 -36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.340
25 -33 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
11 -62 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
28
Whiff%25.3%
69 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Cutter Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lange, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.340 2026-07-07: 0.3342026-07-08: 0.3342026-07-09: 0.3342026-07-10: 0.3402026-07-11: 0.3402026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3402026-07-14: 0.3402026-07-15: 0.3402026-07-16: 0.3402026-07-17: 0.3402026-07-18: 0.340 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lange, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.4%Sinker: 23.4%Changeup: 21.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.3%Cutter: 10.5%Knuckle Curve: 0.1% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%SI 23%CH 21%FF 12%FC 11%KC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.7 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphKnuckle Curve: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.5 mphKC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 31.9% 158 98 limited sample
SI 22.4% 111 100 limited sample
CH 21.0% 104 104 limited sample
FB 13.5% 67 91 limited sample
FC 11.1% 55 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 60%, Changeup 15%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.09
K% Δ-0.054
Sample40.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.5----
Batters Faced142----
K%26.2%18.2% to 32.2%+/- 7.0%
BB%12.0%6.9% to 17.7%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%31.2%25.1% to 39.5%+/- 7.2%
HR/90.840.00 to 1.56+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3060.212 to 0.356+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.1%1.7% to 10.0%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.830.82 to 5.75+/- 2.46
FIP3.702.17 to 5.04+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3730.928 to 1.725+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

383 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%22.3%
BB%14.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

479 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.8%
BB%10.5%
Barrel3.6%