Mithrandir Metrics
Player Minnesota Twins Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 30

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Minnesota Twins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024773.6023230135.01470.99
202513103.4231300171.01941.04
20267103.7927270144.21591.16
6 Seasons53463.791421410786.08781.08
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
85
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.79
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.78 3.27 3.83 4.38 4.88
FIP
3.14 3.40 3.70 3.99 4.26
K%
23.7% 24.7% 25.8% 26.9% 27.9%
BB%
4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
76
ERA3.79
59
BB%5.1%
96
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.297
70
Barrel allowed10.3%
12
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%23.0%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-20
Curveball Stuff+105
83
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Slider Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+107
82
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ryan, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.297 2026-10-09: 0.2972026-10-10: 0.2972026-10-11: 0.2972026-10-12: 0.2972026-10-13: 0.2972026-10-14: 0.2972026-10-15: 0.2972026-10-16: 0.2972026-10-17: 0.2972026-10-18: 0.2972026-10-19: 0.2972026-10-20: 0.297 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Sweeper: 16.0%Split-Finger: 12.0%Knuckle Curve: 11.2%Sinker: 9.9%Slider: 7.1% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 16%FS 12%KC 11%SI 10%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 79.0 mphKC79 mphSinker: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 767 107 qualified
SL 25.4% 401 105 qualified
CB 14.2% 225 105 qualified
SI 11.8% 186 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2021-09-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.02
K% Δ+0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.337
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.297

Ryan’s wOBA-against sits at 0.337, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.297 — a gap of 0.040, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 152 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-09-25Four-Seam Fastball played up through ST/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.4% K | 3.81 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs HOU1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs CIN1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ TOR2 ER / 5 K7.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs DET2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ KC5 ER / 3 K4.0 IP