Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Ryan, Joe

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
21.9% to 31.6%
Live Δ
--
Team MIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
70
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal5 metrics
86
Pitching2 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
80
ERA3.65
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Slider Stuff+107
87
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ryan, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.290 2026-08-22: 0.2902026-08-23: 0.2902026-08-24: 0.2902026-08-25: 0.2902026-08-26: 0.2902026-08-27: 0.2902026-08-28: 0.2902026-08-29: 0.2902026-08-30: 0.2902026-08-31: 0.2902026-09-01: 0.2902026-09-02: 0.290 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.1%Sweeper: 14.2%Split-Finger: 12.5%Knuckle Curve: 11.6%Sinker: 10.1%Slider: 6.5% FF45% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 45%ST 14%FS 12%KC 12%SI 10%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphKnuckle Curve: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 78.9 mphKC79 mphSinker: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.0% 675 107 qualified
SL 23.0% 310 107 qualified
CB 14.7% 198 105 limited sample
SI 12.3% 166 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sweeper 13%, Sinker 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.4----
Batters Faced313----
K%25.3%21.9% to 31.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.9%3.9% to 8.0%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%23.8%20.5% to 27.5%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.441.03 to 2.23+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2970.272 to 0.319+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed9.2%6.8% to 13.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.812.87 to 5.56+/- 1.35
FIP3.763.17 to 4.62+/- 0.73
WHIP1.1120.928 to 1.330+/- 0.201
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

1407 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%27.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.4%