Mithrandir Metrics
Player KC Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / KC

Kris Bubic

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 220 lb · Age 28

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club KC Position -- Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024112.67270130.1391.02
2025872.5520200116.11161.18
2026324.1199050.1511.23
7 Seasons22384.14126891522.04951.39
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal5 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p503.79
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.61 3.17 3.79 4.42 4.98
FIP
2.83 3.18 3.57 3.96 4.31
K%
21.4% 22.8% 24.4% 26.0% 27.4%
BB%
8.6% 9.5% 10.4% 11.4% 12.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
64
ERA4.11
47
BB%12.9%
13 -51 vs proj
K%24.6%
64
xwOBA allowed0.327
37 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
58
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
34
Whiff%23.4%
54 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+102
44
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bubic, Kris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.327 2026-07-06: 0.3282026-07-07: 0.3282026-07-08: 0.3282026-07-09: 0.3282026-07-10: 0.3282026-07-11: 0.3282026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.3272026-07-17: 0.327 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bubic, Kris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bubic, Kris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Changeup: 20.0%Sweeper: 17.3%Sinker: 12.7%Slider: 8.9% FF41% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 20%ST 17%SI 13%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bubic, Kris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphSinker: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 334 102 qualified
SL 26.2% 211 104 qualified
CH 20.0% 161 102 limited sample
SI 12.3% 99 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.47
K% Δ-0.003

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.307
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.327

Bubic’s wOBA-against sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.020, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 53 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-05-084-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.8% K | 3.64 ERAProjection