Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Bubic, Kris

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.7% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.46
ERA current pace3.76
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.44 3.00 3.61 4.23 4.79
FIP
2.86 3.21 3.60 3.99 4.34
K%
21.5% 22.9% 24.4% 25.9% 27.3%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 11.1% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
61
ERA3.76
60
BB%12.3%
16 -50 vs proj
K%24.6%
68
xwOBA allowed0.321
38 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
57
Fastball velo91.9
14
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
40
Whiff%23.1%
54 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+102
52
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+104
68
Changeup Stuff+101
46
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bubic, Kris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-10-04: 0.3152026-10-05: 0.3142026-10-06: 0.3142026-10-07: 0.3142026-10-08: 0.3142026-10-09: 0.3142026-10-10: 0.3142026-10-11: 0.3142026-10-12: 0.3142026-10-13: 0.3212026-10-14: 0.3212026-10-15: 0.321 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bubic, Kris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bubic, Kris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Changeup: 20.2%Sweeper: 17.4%Sinker: 13.0%Slider: 8.3% FF41% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 20%ST 17%SI 13%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bubic, Kris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSinker: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 356 102 qualified
SL 25.7% 220 104 qualified
CH 20.3% 174 101 limited sample
SI 12.5% 107 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Changeup 21%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.16
K% Δ-0.002
Sample59.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.0----
Batters Faced589----
K%24.8%19.7% to 29.0%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.7%5.8% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%25.7%21.2% to 29.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.110.35 to 1.59+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3000.254 to 0.315+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed7.6%4.9% to 10.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.601.52 to 4.84+/- 1.66
FIP3.522.28 to 4.37+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2060.989 to 1.441+/- 0.226
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

456 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%23.3%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHH

1716 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%22.5%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.5%