Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Changeup 21%, Sweeper 20%.
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026
Bubic, Kris
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team KC
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 29
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.50 |
| ERA current pace | 4.11 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.79 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
ERA
2.61
3.17
3.79
4.42
4.98
FIP
2.83
3.18
3.57
3.96
4.31
K%
21.4%
22.8%
24.4%
26.0%
27.4%
BB%
8.6%
9.5%
10.4%
11.4%
12.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.9%
11
-53 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
57
Fastball velo91.6
14
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
38
K%24.6%
63
Whiff%23.4%
54
-15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
40
-21 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
55
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
41%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 41.5% | 334 | 101 | qualified |
| SL | 26.2% | 211 | 104 | qualified |
| CH | 20.0% | 161 | 102 | limited sample |
| SI | 12.3% | 99 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.47 |
| K% Δ | -0.003 |
| Sample | 53.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 136.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 570 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.8% | 19.7% to 29.0% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.8% to 10.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 25.7% | 21.2% to 29.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.03 | 0.33 to 1.48 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.257 to 0.318 | +/- 0.031 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.6% | 4.9% to 10.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.64 | 1.53 to 4.88 | +/- 1.68 |
| FIP | 3.52 | 2.28 to 4.37 | +/- 1.05 |
| WHIP | 1.254 | 1.029 to 1.500 | +/- 0.235 |
vs LHH
456 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHH
1716 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.248 |
| K% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |