Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Casey Mize

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 212 lb · Age 29

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024264.4922200102.1781.47
20251463.8728280149.01391.27
2026462.791414077.1771.00
6 Seasons27313.981031010517.14421.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal4 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p503.15
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.25 2.68 3.15 3.63 4.06
FIP
2.78 3.04 3.32 3.60 3.86
K%
20.6% 21.8% 23.2% 24.6% 25.8%
BB%
5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
84
ERA2.79
82
BB%6.1%
86
K%25.0%
68 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
81
Whiff%26.6%
75 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+101
37
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+105
69
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mize, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-07: 0.2712026-07-08: 0.2712026-07-09: 0.2712026-07-10: 0.2712026-07-11: 0.2712026-07-12: 0.2712026-07-13: 0.2742026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.2742026-07-17: 0.2742026-07-18: 0.274 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mize, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Split-Finger: 24.1%Slider: 23.9%Sinker: 11.3%Slurve: 5.7% FF35% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 35%FS 24%SL 24%SI 11%SV 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 24% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSinker: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSlurve: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.7 mphSV82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.4% 231 101 qualified
SL 40.7% 207 105 qualified
SI 13.9% 71 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight212 lb
Debut2020-08-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.28
K% Δ+0.041

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.324
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.274

Mize’s wOBA-against sits at 0.324, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.274 — a gap of 0.050, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 84 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-07-11Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.9% K | 4.07 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ BOS0 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-11 vs MIA1 ER / 5 K5.2 IP
2026-04-06 @ MIN5 ER / 4 K4.1 IP
2026-03-31 @ AZ1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP