Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Casey Mize

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 212 lb · Age 29

Cards
26
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024264.4922200102.1781.47
20251463.8728280149.01391.27
2026593.6422220113.21001.12
6 Seasons28344.081111090553.24651.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
70
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace3.64
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.70 3.13 3.62 4.10 4.54
FIP
3.23 3.49 3.79 4.08 4.35
K%
19.1% 20.1% 21.2% 22.4% 23.4%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
76
ERA3.64
63
BB%6.1%
88
K%21.5%
45
xwOBA allowed0.288
77
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
60
Whiff%22.2%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mize, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.288 2026-08-23: 0.2832026-08-24: 0.2832026-08-25: 0.2902026-08-26: 0.2902026-08-27: 0.2902026-08-28: 0.2902026-08-29: 0.2902026-08-30: 0.2902026-08-31: 0.2902026-09-01: 0.2902026-09-02: 0.2902026-09-03: 0.288 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mize, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Slider: 26.6%Split-Finger: 23.3%Sinker: 10.0%Slurve: 5.1% FF35% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 27%FS 23%SI 10%SV 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.5 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphSinker: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlurve: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.4 mphSV81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.7% 337 102 qualified
SL 41.9% 309 104 qualified
SI 12.3% 91 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight212 lb
Debut2020-08-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.33
K% Δ+0.007

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.337
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.288

Mize’s wOBA-against sits at 0.337, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.288 — a gap of 0.049, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 119 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching262026-09-02Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.9% K | 3.97 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ BOS0 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-11 vs MIA1 ER / 5 K5.2 IP
2026-04-06 @ MIN5 ER / 4 K4.1 IP
2026-03-31 @ AZ1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP