Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Mize, Casey

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace2.27
ERA rolling p502.99
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.10 2.52 2.99 3.46 3.88
FIP
2.81 3.06 3.34 3.62 3.87
K%
20.1% 21.5% 23.1% 24.7% 26.1%
BB%
5.1% 5.8% 6.6% 7.4% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
79
Barrel allowed6.8%
64 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
32
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
91
K%25.8%
74 +35 vs proj
Whiff%26.6%
74 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.258
90 +38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mize, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2762026-05-19: 0.2762026-05-21: 0.2762026-05-23: 0.2632026-05-24: 0.2632026-05-25: 0.2632026-05-26: 0.2632026-05-28: 0.2582026-05-29: 0.2582026-05-30: 0.2582026-05-31: 0.2582026-06-01: 0.258 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mize, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.9%Split-Finger: 26.2%Slider: 23.5%Sinker: 10.6%Slurve: 5.8% MIX FF 34%FS 26%SL 23%SI 11%SV 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFFS: HB -0.5, IVB 2.6FSSL: HB 0.1, IVB 2.5SLSI: HB 1.2, IVB 1.4SISV: HB -0.5, IVB 3.9SV horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.4% 231 100 qualified
SL 40.7% 207 104 qualified
SI 13.9% 71 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.80
K% Δ+0.049
Sample54.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.2----
Batters Faced317----
K%20.9%17.7% to 27.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.7%4.7% to 8.9%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.6%19.5% to 26.0%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.280.93 to 1.98+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3110.286 to 0.339+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.5% to 12.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.073.20 to 5.72+/- 1.26
FIP4.023.12 to 4.61+/- 0.75
WHIP1.3401.127 to 1.580+/- 0.227
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1039 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%19.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1029 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%19.1%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.1%