Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Mize, Casey

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
70
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace3.64
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.70 3.13 3.62 4.10 4.54
FIP
3.23 3.49 3.79 4.08 4.35
K%
19.1% 20.1% 21.2% 22.4% 23.4%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
76
ERA3.64
63
BB%6.1%
88
K%21.5%
45
xwOBA allowed0.288
77
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
60
Whiff%22.2%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mize, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.288 2026-08-23: 0.2832026-08-24: 0.2832026-08-25: 0.2902026-08-26: 0.2902026-08-27: 0.2902026-08-28: 0.2902026-08-29: 0.2902026-08-30: 0.2902026-08-31: 0.2902026-09-01: 0.2902026-09-02: 0.2902026-09-03: 0.288 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mize, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Slider: 26.6%Split-Finger: 23.3%Sinker: 10.0%Slurve: 5.1% FF35% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 27%FS 23%SI 10%SV 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mize, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.5 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphSinker: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlurve: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.4 mphSV81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.7% 337 102 qualified
SL 41.9% 309 104 qualified
SI 12.3% 91 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.33
K% Δ+0.007
Sample119.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.2----
Batters Faced326----
K%20.9%17.7% to 27.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.7%4.7% to 8.9%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.6%19.5% to 26.0%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.300.94 to 2.00+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3030.279 to 0.331+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.5% to 12.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.973.12 to 5.57+/- 1.23
FIP3.983.12 to 4.61+/- 0.75
WHIP1.3031.098 to 1.539+/- 0.220
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1039 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%19.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1029 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%19.1%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.1%