Mithrandir Metrics
Player FCL Nationals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / FCL Nationals

Jake Irvin

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 234 lb · Age 29

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club FCL Nationals Position P Roster Injured 60-Day Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202410144.4133330187.21561.20
20259135.7033330180.01241.43
2026245.231111051.2581.35
4 Seasons24384.961011010540.14371.34
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.65
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.94
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.74 4.31 4.94 5.58 6.15
FIP
3.52 3.84 4.20 4.56 4.88
K%
19.1% 20.5% 22.0% 23.5% 24.9%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
49
ERA5.23
20
BB%9.3%
41 -24 vs proj
K%25.5%
71 +51 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
16
Barrel allowed11.0%
12 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
21
Hard-hit allowed45.2%
12
Whiff%23.0%
50 +35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+106
84
Changeup Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Slider Stuff+101
41
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Irvin, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.349 2026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3492026-07-11: 0.3492026-07-12: 0.3492026-07-13: 0.3492026-07-14: 0.3492026-07-15: 0.3492026-07-16: 0.3492026-07-17: 0.3492026-07-18: 0.349 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Irvin, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Curveball: 24.7%Sinker: 23.5%Cutter: 10.8%Sweeper: 7.9%Changeup: 4.9% FF28% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CU 25%SI 24%FC 11%ST 8%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 77.4 mphCU77 mphSinker: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mphCutter: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.5% 261 100 qualified
CB 25.6% 243 103 qualified
SI 24.0% 228 106 qualified
FC 10.6% 101 106 limited sample
SL 7.8% 74 101 limited sample
CH 4.4% 42 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 6"
Weight234 lb
Debut2023-05-03
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.08
K% Δ+0.074

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.350
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.349

Irvin’s wOBA-against sits at 0.350, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.349 — a gap of 0.001, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 56 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-23Curveball played up through CU/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.1% K | 5.31 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs ATL3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ PIT2 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs LAD6 ER / 4 K4.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ CHC2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP