Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Jake Irvin

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 234 lb · Age 29

Cards
22
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202410144.4133330187.21561.20
20259135.7033330180.01241.43
2026285.571818085.2871.40
4 Seasons24425.031081080574.14661.35
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal7 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason4.67
ERA current pace5.82
ERA rolling p505.38
Observed weight61%
ERA
4.28 4.80 5.38 5.95 6.47
FIP
4.05 4.35 4.69 5.03 5.34
K%
18.8% 19.9% 21.1% 22.3% 23.4%
BB%
7.7% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA5.82
14
BB%10.5%
32 -37 vs proj
K%22.8%
56 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.351
14
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
21
Hard-hit allowed44.5%
12
Whiff%21.6%
40 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Curveball Stuff+104
73
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+103
62
Cutter Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+101
43
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Irvin, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-08-21: 0.3512026-08-22: 0.3512026-08-23: 0.3512026-08-24: 0.3512026-08-25: 0.3532026-08-26: 0.3532026-08-27: 0.3532026-08-28: 0.3512026-08-29: 0.3512026-08-30: 0.3512026-08-31: 0.3512026-09-01: 0.351 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Irvin, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.0%Curveball: 23.3%Sinker: 18.9%Cutter: 11.2%Sweeper: 9.3%Changeup: 8.4% FF29% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 29%CU 23%SI 19%FC 11%ST 9%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.1% 412 100 qualified
CB 23.4% 332 104 qualified
SI 19.2% 272 106 qualified
FC 10.8% 153 105 limited sample
SL 9.5% 134 101 limited sample
CH 8.0% 113 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 6"
Weight234 lb
Debut2023-05-03
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.52
K% Δ+0.047

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.354
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.351

Irvin’s wOBA-against sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.351 — a gap of 0.003, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 86 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching222026-09-01Four-Seam Fastball played up through CU/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.1% K | 5.30 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs ATL3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ PIT2 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs LAD6 ER / 4 K4.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ CHC2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP