Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Irvin, Jake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.1% K%
Range
14.7% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal7 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.66
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p505.23
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.99 4.58 5.23 5.88 6.47
FIP
3.98 4.31 4.68 5.05 5.38
K%
18.9% 20.0% 21.3% 22.5% 23.7%
BB%
7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA5.57
17
BB%10.3%
34 -35 vs proj
K%23.1%
57 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15
Barrel allowed10.5%
10 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
22
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
11
Whiff%21.3%
38 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+104
75
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+106
84
Changeup Stuff+102
54
Cutter Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Irvin, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.350 2026-08-25: 0.3532026-08-26: 0.3532026-08-27: 0.3532026-08-28: 0.3512026-08-29: 0.3512026-08-30: 0.3512026-08-31: 0.3512026-09-01: 0.3512026-09-02: 0.3502026-09-03: 0.3502026-09-04: 0.3502026-09-05: 0.350 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Irvin, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.8%Curveball: 23.0%Sinker: 18.5%Cutter: 11.2%Sweeper: 9.3%Changeup: 8.3% FF30% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 30%CU 23%SI 18%FC 11%ST 9%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 77.7 mphCU78 mphSinker: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.0% 450 100 qualified
CB 23.1% 347 104 qualified
SI 18.8% 282 106 qualified
FC 10.8% 162 105 limited sample
SL 9.5% 142 102 limited sample
CH 7.9% 119 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.339 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Curveball 29%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.27
K% Δ+0.049
Sample89.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.6----
Batters Faced627----
K%18.1%14.7% to 24.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.6%5.4% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.7%15.1% to 23.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.640.79 to 2.38+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3350.289 to 0.361+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA5.313.26 to 6.66+/- 1.70
FIP4.793.63 to 5.55+/- 0.96
WHIP1.3411.124 to 1.627+/- 0.252
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1162 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.0%
BB%7.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

977 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%18.6%
BB%6.2%
Barrel8.0%