Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Oct 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Chase Shugart

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024004.156018.281.27
2025433.40350045.0311.11
2026214.02460053.2591.17
3 Seasons643.778701107.1981.16
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
65
ERA4.03
50
BB%10.1%
35
K%26.1%
77
xwOBA allowed0.300
68
Barrel allowed9.5%
20
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
84
Whiff%21.8%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-16
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Cutter Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+101
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.300 2026-10-05: 0.3002026-10-06: 0.3002026-10-07: 0.3002026-10-08: 0.3002026-10-09: 0.3002026-10-10: 0.3002026-10-11: 0.3002026-10-12: 0.3002026-10-13: 0.3002026-10-14: 0.3002026-10-15: 0.3002026-10-16: 0.300 2026-10-05 2026-10-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 30.7%Sinker: 28.5%Sweeper: 20.9%4-Seam Fastball: 10.5%Changeup: 9.4% FC31% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 31%SI 29%ST 21%FF 11%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 29% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.2% 174 100 limited sample
SI 29.5% 170 104 limited sample
SL 21.5% 124 101 limited sample
CH 10.2% 59 102 limited sample
FB 8.5% 49 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height5' 11"
Weight200 lb
Debut2024-08-15
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.340
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.300

Shugart’s wOBA-against sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.300 — a gap of 0.040, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 56 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-08-15 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs ATL1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 ER / 3 K2.0 IP