Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Chase Shugart

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024004.156018.281.27
2025433.40350045.0311.11
2026214.70370044.0531.30
3 Seasons644.05780197.2921.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA4.71
32
BB%10.8%
28
K%27.6%
84
xwOBA allowed0.315
47
Barrel allowed10.7%
9
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
64
Whiff%23.1%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Cutter Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+102
55
Slider Stuff+101
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.315 2026-08-21: 0.3172026-08-22: 0.3172026-08-23: 0.3172026-08-24: 0.3172026-08-25: 0.3152026-08-26: 0.3152026-08-27: 0.3152026-08-28: 0.3152026-08-29: 0.3152026-08-30: 0.3152026-08-31: 0.3152026-09-01: 0.315 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.4%Sinker: 28.2%Sweeper: 22.1%4-Seam Fastball: 11.7%Changeup: 8.6% FC29% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 29%SI 28%ST 22%FF 12%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 28% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 29.5% 143 100 limited sample
SI 28.9% 140 102 limited sample
SL 22.7% 110 101 limited sample
FB 9.5% 46 104 limited sample
CH 9.3% 45 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height5' 11"
Weight200 lb
Debut2024-08-15
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.375
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.315

Shugart’s wOBA-against sits at 0.375, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.315 — a gap of 0.060, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 46 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.8% K | 3.92 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs ATL1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 ER / 3 K2.0 IP