Shugart, Chase
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.82 |
| ERA current pace | 1.53 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.19 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 29.0% | 86 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 28.6% | 85 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 22.6% | 67 | 95 | limited sample |
| FB | 11.8% | 35 | 107 | limited sample |
| CH | 8.1% | 24 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.37 |
| K% Δ | +0.068 |
| Sample | 21.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 137 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.8% | 12.8% to 25.6% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 5.2% to 13.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| Whiff% | 20.4% | 16.7% to 26.9% | +/- 5.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.38 | 0.44 to 2.36 | +/- 0.96 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.341 | 0.256 to 0.378 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 3.1% to 11.8% | +/- 4.4% |
| ERA | 3.92 | 1.45 to 6.55 | +/- 2.55 |
| FIP | 4.57 | 3.00 to 5.91 | +/- 1.46 |
| WHIP | 1.375 | 0.851 to 1.646 | +/- 0.398 |
97 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |
141 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 16.2% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |