Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Shugart, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
12.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace4.60
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.40 3.26 4.21 5.16 6.02
FIP
3.62 4.11 4.65 5.19 5.68
K%
18.1% 20.0% 22.0% 24.1% 25.9%
BB%
7.0% 8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 12.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.60
35
BB%10.7%
30 -19 vs proj
K%27.2%
82 +56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
51 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
10 -29 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
72
Whiff%23.2%
53 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Cutter Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+102
54
Slider Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-08-25: 0.3152026-08-26: 0.3152026-08-27: 0.3152026-08-28: 0.3152026-08-29: 0.3152026-08-30: 0.3152026-08-31: 0.3152026-09-01: 0.3152026-09-02: 0.3122026-09-03: 0.3122026-09-04: 0.3122026-09-05: 0.312 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.4%Sinker: 28.3%Sweeper: 22.2%4-Seam Fastball: 11.5%Changeup: 8.6% FC29% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 29%SI 28%ST 22%FF 11%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 28% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 29.4% 146 100 limited sample
SI 29.0% 144 102 limited sample
SL 23.0% 114 101 limited sample
FB 9.3% 46 104 limited sample
CH 9.3% 46 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 29%, Cutter 25%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ+0.085
Sample47.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.8----
Batters Faced136----
K%18.8%12.8% to 25.6%+/- 6.4%
BB%9.1%5.2% to 13.4%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%20.4%16.7% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.380.44 to 2.36+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3410.256 to 0.378+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 11.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.921.45 to 6.55+/- 2.55
FIP4.573.00 to 5.91+/- 1.46
WHIP1.3750.851 to 1.646+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.4%