Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Tyler Holton

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 30

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024722.19669894.1770.78
2025653.66706078.2641.04
2026143.12412043.1371.32
5 Seasons17132.69246189310.22580.96
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal7 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.47 2.93 3.43 3.94 4.40
FIP
3.54 3.79 4.06 4.34 4.59
K%
16.9% 18.4% 20.1% 21.8% 23.3%
BB%
4.2% 4.9% 5.7% 6.5% 7.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
36
ERA3.21
71
BB%5.4%
93
K%19.5%
30
xwOBA allowed0.302
64 +15 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
77 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
7
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
40
Whiff%22.9%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Changeup Stuff+102
45
Curveball Stuff+97
1
Cutter Stuff+105
81
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+98
27
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holton, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3022026-07-15: 0.3022026-07-16: 0.3022026-07-17: 0.3022026-07-18: 0.3022026-07-19: 0.302 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holton, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.3%Sinker: 18.0%Sweeper: 16.7%Changeup: 16.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Curveball: 5.1% FC31% · 87 mphprimary pitch FC 31%SI 18%ST 17%CH 16%FF 13%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.8 mphST80 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 32.0% 178 105 limited sample
SI 18.3% 102 105 limited sample
SL 17.1% 95 98 limited sample
CH 14.9% 83 102 limited sample
FB 12.9% 72 97 limited sample
CB 4.8% 27 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2022-04-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.45
K% Δ-0.007

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.360
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Holton’s wOBA-against sits at 0.360, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.058, 1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-05-04Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.2% K | 3.66 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs CLE1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ BOS3 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs KC0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-09 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-07 @ MIN0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP