Holton, Tyler
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.61 |
| ERA current pace | 4.56 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.92 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 33.3% | 145 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 18.6% | 81 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 17.7% | 77 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.9% | 65 | 101 | limited sample |
| FB | 11.0% | 48 | 95 | limited sample |
| CB | 4.6% | 20 | 95 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.90 |
| K% Δ | +0.000 |
| Sample | 26.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 72.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 283 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.2% | 16.4% to 26.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 3.9% to 8.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 22.5% | 18.9% to 27.5% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 1.01 to 2.18 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.315 | 0.270 to 0.329 | +/- 0.029 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.6% | 5.2% to 10.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 3.66 | 2.28 to 4.98 | +/- 1.35 |
| FIP | 4.18 | 3.37 to 4.85 | +/- 0.74 |
| WHIP | 1.173 | 0.888 to 1.463 | +/- 0.288 |
473 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.253 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
673 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |