Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Holton, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.92 3.39 3.92 4.45 4.93
FIP
3.74 4.00 4.29 4.58 4.85
K%
16.8% 18.5% 20.4% 22.4% 24.1%
BB%
4.4% 5.3% 6.2% 7.1% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
77
Barrel allowed5.9%
74 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo91.0
7
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
13
K%20.2%
34
Whiff%23.4%
53
xwOBA allowed0.314
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holton, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3452026-05-19: 0.3452026-05-21: 0.3302026-05-23: 0.3272026-05-24: 0.3272026-05-25: 0.3192026-05-26: 0.3192026-05-28: 0.3152026-05-29: 0.3142026-05-30: 0.3142026-05-31: 0.3142026-06-01: 0.314 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holton, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.7%Sinker: 18.4%Sweeper: 17.1%Changeup: 15.6%4-Seam Fastball: 11.2%Curveball: 5.0% MIX FC 33%SI 18%ST 17%CH 16%FF 11%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.4, IVB 2.5FCSI: HB 1.3, IVB 2.0SIST: HB -1.5, IVB 3.7STCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.1CHFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.4FFCU: HB 1.0, IVB 4.9CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.3% 145 105 limited sample
SI 18.6% 81 105 limited sample
SL 17.7% 77 101 limited sample
CH 14.9% 65 101 limited sample
FB 11.0% 48 95 limited sample
CB 4.6% 20 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 30%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 18%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.90
K% Δ+0.000
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.6----
Batters Faced283----
K%20.2%16.4% to 26.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 8.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.5%18.9% to 27.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.371.01 to 2.18+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3150.270 to 0.329+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.2% to 10.3%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.662.28 to 4.98+/- 1.35
FIP4.183.37 to 4.85+/- 0.74
WHIP1.1730.888 to 1.463+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

473 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%21.3%
BB%4.3%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

673 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%19.1%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.7%