Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Edward Cabrera

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 217 lb · Age 28

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024484.952020096.11071.37
2025873.5326260137.21501.23
2026545.101414072.1651.40
6 Seasons30334.211031010504.05431.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.10
ERA rolling p504.61
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.54 4.05 4.61 5.17 5.68
FIP
4.01 4.47 4.99 5.50 5.96
K%
19.8% 21.1% 22.5% 23.9% 25.1%
BB%
7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
18
ERA5.10
23
BB%9.1%
44
K%20.6%
37 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
27 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.6%
2 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
78
Hard-hit allowed46.7%
7
Whiff%23.0%
50 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Changeup Stuff+108
88
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Curveball Stuff+101
26
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+100
37
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cabrera, Edward · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.338 2026-07-08: 0.3382026-07-09: 0.3382026-07-10: 0.3382026-07-11: 0.3382026-07-12: 0.3382026-07-13: 0.3382026-07-14: 0.3382026-07-15: 0.3382026-07-16: 0.3382026-07-17: 0.3382026-07-18: 0.3382026-07-19: 0.338 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cabrera, Edward · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 30.7%Sinker: 21.5%Curveball: 18.8%4-Seam Fastball: 17.4%Slider: 11.5% CH31% · 93 mphprimary pitch CH 31%SI 22%CU 19%FF 17%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 31% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.9 mphCH93 mphSinker: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.5 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.7 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.0 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 32.3% 308 108 qualified
SI 20.0% 191 102 limited sample
CB 19.1% 182 101 limited sample
FB 16.8% 160 99 limited sample
SL 11.8% 113 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight217 lb
Debut2021-08-25
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.33
K% Δ-0.046

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.419
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.338

Cabrera’s wOBA-against sits at 0.419, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.338 — a gap of 0.081, 2.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 78 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-06-23Curveball played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.2% K | 3.77 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs MIL1 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs NYM3 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs PIT3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ CLE0 ER / 4 K5.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs LAA0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP