Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Cabrera, Edward

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
21.0% to 31.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.96
ERA rolling p505.17
Observed weight62%
ERA
4.09 4.60 5.17 5.74 6.26
FIP
4.17 4.63 5.15 5.67 6.14
K%
19.4% 20.6% 22.0% 23.3% 24.5%
BB%
8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.59
13
ERA5.96
11
BB%10.0%
37
K%19.9%
35 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
13 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.4%
2 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
81
Hard-hit allowed46.1%
6
Whiff%23.2%
55 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Changeup Stuff+107
88
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+102
52
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+101
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cabrera, Edward · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.352 2026-10-09: 0.3522026-10-10: 0.3522026-10-11: 0.3522026-10-12: 0.3522026-10-13: 0.3522026-10-14: 0.3522026-10-15: 0.3522026-10-16: 0.3522026-10-17: 0.3522026-10-18: 0.3522026-10-19: 0.3522026-10-20: 0.352 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cabrera, Edward · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 30.8%Sinker: 21.5%Curveball: 18.9%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Slider: 11.6% CH31% · 93 mphprimary pitch CH 31%SI 21%CU 19%FF 17%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 31% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.1 mphCH93 mphSinker: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.9 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 32.2% 343 107 qualified
SI 19.7% 210 102 qualified
CB 19.2% 204 101 qualified
FB 16.7% 178 100 limited sample
SL 12.1% 129 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.312 vs 0.282 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 26%, Curveball 24%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.19
K% Δ-0.053
Sample85.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.4----
Batters Faced616----
K%25.2%21.0% to 31.3%+/- 5.1%
BB%9.4%7.2% to 12.2%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.3%23.9% to 32.3%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.240.84 to 1.97+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3140.258 to 0.332+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.9% to 11.7%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.772.65 to 5.63+/- 1.49
FIP3.973.04 to 5.76+/- 1.36
WHIP1.2461.045 to 1.527+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

974 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%22.8%
BB%11.5%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

925 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.7%
BB%7.8%
Barrel7.8%