Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.90 |
| ERA current pace | 4.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.95 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 31.9% | 279 | 108 | qualified |
| SI | 20.1% | 176 | 102 | limited sample |
| CB | 19.3% | 169 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 16.7% | 146 | 97 | limited sample |
| SL | 11.9% | 104 | 101 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
| ERA Δ | +0.23 |
| K% Δ | -0.051 |
| Sample | 60.0 IP |
positive regression
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 141.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 618 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.2% | 21.0% to 31.3% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.2% to 12.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 26.3% | 23.9% to 32.3% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 0.84 to 1.97 | +/- 0.57 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.314 | 0.258 to 0.332 | +/- 0.037 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.9% to 11.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 3.77 | 2.65 to 5.63 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 3.97 | 3.04 to 5.76 | +/- 1.36 |
| WHIP | 1.246 | 1.045 to 1.527 | +/- 0.241 |
| xwOBA | 0.312 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 9.1% |
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 24.7% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
