Mithrandir Metrics
Player Minnesota Twins Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Minnesota Twins

Tommy Nance

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 235 lb · Age 35

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Minnesota Twins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024034.09200022.0191.23
2025201.99300031.2321.01
2026223.22490050.1551.31
5 Seasons794.0316120176.11931.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.35
ERA rolling p503.52
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.01 2.72 3.52 4.31 5.02
FIP
2.99 3.18 3.38 3.59 3.77
K%
19.2% 21.2% 23.4% 25.6% 27.5%
BB%
6.0% 7.2% 8.4% 9.6% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA3.35
72
BB%8.9%
51
K%25.7%
74 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
57 +32 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
56
Whiff%23.2%
53 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+106
83
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nance, Tommy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-08-21: 0.3102026-08-22: 0.3102026-08-23: 0.3102026-08-24: 0.3102026-08-25: 0.3122026-08-26: 0.3122026-08-27: 0.3122026-08-28: 0.3122026-08-29: 0.3122026-08-30: 0.3122026-08-31: 0.3122026-09-01: 0.308 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nance, Tommy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nance, Tommy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 42.3%Curveball: 29.6%Sinker: 27.7%4-Seam Fastball: 0.4% SL42% · 89 mphprimary pitch SL 42%CU 30%SI 28%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nance, Tommy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slider: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.1 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 84.7 mphCU85 mphSinker: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 41.2% 217 106 qualified
CB 31.3% 165 103 limited sample
SI 27.5% 145 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 6"
Weight235 lb
Debut2021-05-17
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.07
K% Δ+0.047

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.303
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.308

Nance’s wOBA-against sits at 0.303, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.308 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 49 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.1% K | 4.43 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs MIN0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs LAD4 ER / 3 K1.1 IP
2026-04-04 @ CWS0 ER / 1 K1.2 IP
2026-04-01 vs COL1 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-03-29 vs ATH0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP